30 September, 2008

Twins @ White Sox, 6:37pm CST


Hello again everybody...

Welcome to a special Tuesday version of The Sports Take. Writing 5 blogs in a week is a bit of a task, but given the circumstances this week, it has to be done.

So here we are. The Twins and the White Sox have played 162 games and finished with identical 88-74 records.

First, let me address yesterday. Yes, I was rooting for the Tigers. But realistically, they had nothing to play for, and it didn't surprise me a bit that Chicago was able to win that game. At least it was rookie-of-the-year candidate Alexi Ramirez that did the damage, and not one of the uber-annoying White Sox veterans. Sure, it's small consolation, but I've got to cling to something.

That brings us to today. For the 12th time in Major League Baseball history, there's a tie breaking game to be played before the playoffs begin. And for the first time ever, the Minnesota Twins are involved.


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I've heard some Twins fans bemoan the situation, thinking that the Twins should've locked up the division when they had the chance. I've heard some folks whine and grumble about the fact that the site of the game was determined by something as arbitrary as a coin-flip. And yes, I'm aware that the Twins are 2-7 at US Cellular Field in Chicago this season.

I say bollocks to all of that.

This is as exciting as it gets. If you're a Twins player, you've played 162 games to reach this moment. Now you've got one game to win. One win and you become one of the 8 playoff teams. Fail, and you can stew on it til Spring Training next February. The only "win or go home" situation that's going to be any more intense than this is Game 7 of the World Series. And that's saying something.

So let's break it down. How do we assess what's going to happen tonight?

I like to use a theory proffered by former Twins manager, and 2-time World Series champion, Tom Kelly:

"If you pitch it a little bit, and catch it a little bit, then you give your team a chance to win."

So let's use that.

"If you pitch it a little bit..."

Starting for the Twins tonight is rookie right-hander Nick Blackburn. Though at this point in the season I'm loathe to call anybody a "rookie", I can't discount the fact that a year ago at this time, Nick was preparing to pitch in the Arizona Fall League. Tonight is just a touch higher on the intensity-scale. So let's look at Nick's numbers:

Overall: 11-10, 4.14 ERA

On the road: 3-7, 5.20

At night: 7-8, 4.64

On grass: 3-6, 4.86

In an open-air ballpark: 3-6, 4.72

In the month of September: 2-2, 6.75

Versus the White Sox: 2.2, 5.67

Last Start: defeated the White Sox, 5 innings pitched, 8 hits, 2 earned runs

There's not a lot to love amongst those numbers except for his last start. When the pressure was on, Nick came through with a serviceable - if not spectacular - start. He's starting on full rest, so there should be no concern about being tired. And frankly, if you can't get energized for a game like this, you don't belong in the big leagues anyway.

His counterpart tonight for the White Sox is left-hander John Danks. Let's look at his numbers:

Overall: 11-9, 3.47

Home: 4-6, 3.96

At night: 4-6, 4.61

On grass: 9-8, 3.58

In an open-air ballpark: 9-8, 3.58

In the month of September: 1-2, 4.44

Versus the Twins: 1-1, 7.91

Last start: lost @ Cleveland, 4 innings pitched, 7 hits, 7 earned runs

Okay, I'm starting to feel more encouraged. Even though the Twins traditionally struggle with left-handers, it appears they've gotten after this guy pretty good. Like Blackburn he's struggled in the month of September. Unlike Nick, he got shelled in his last start. And Danks' numbers aren't appreciably better at home, so hopefully that will remove some of the home-field advantage from the White Sox.

"... and you catch it a little bit..."

Defense is going to play a crucial role in this game. Unfortunately, neither of these teams has especially good defensive numbers:

Minnesota Twins: in 6132 total chances, the Twins have committed 108 errors for a fielding percentage of .982 which ranks 12th out of 14 American League teams.

Chicago White Sox: in 6176 total chances, the Sox have also committed 108 errors for a fielding percentage of .983 which ranks 11th out of 14 American League teams.

Advantage? Well nobody really. Which only makes tonight's defensive performance more critical. Count up the defensive mistakes on each side. Whoever commits the most will most likely lose the game.

"... then you give your team a chance to win."

That's the bottom line. Pitching and defense give you a chance to win. But they only give you a chance.

After that it's who wants it more? Who makes the sacrifices? Who does the little things correctly? Who handles the pressure? Who comes through in the clutch? Who lays it on the line for their playoff lives?

These are the questions viewers will be asking themselves starting at 6:37pm central time (4:37 pacific - come on D'backs fans, join me!) tonight on TBS (check your local listings).

As you can probably tell, I'm a wee bit excited for tonight. And fortunately for me, WCCO radio is carrying a Wild pre-season game against the Blackhawks starting at 6:35pm, so I'll be able to focus a solid 90% of my attention on the Twins game!

So enjoy the game tonight. Experience the drama of "win or go home" baseball. And root for the Twins!

I'll be back tomorrow with my regular Wednesday column. Until then, thanks for reading!

29 September, 2008

Weekend Notes, Week 5 Post-Mortem & ST Mailbag


Hello again everybody...

Welcome to another week of Sports Take goodness. There's a ton to get to today including some thoughts about what transpired over the weekend, the Week 5 Post-Mortem on my college football picks, and this week's version of the Sports Take Mailbag. So let's rock...

"Not only is the universe stranger than we imagine, it is stranger than we can imagine."
- Sir Arthur Eddington (1882 - 1944), English astrophysicist

I think you could replace "the universe" with "baseball" and you'd be just as correct.

Which leads me to some thoughts from this weekend:

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Twins/White Sox: Well, it could've been worse I guess. It's tough to think that had the Twins stepped up and won even one of the first two games against Kansas City, they'd be in the playoffs now instead of waiting for this game in Chicago to start (it's currently in a rain delay as I write this - joy).

But the bottom line is that the Twins had to at least match the White Sox to make sure they'd be no worse off than having to go to Chicago on Tuesday for a play-in game, and they did exactly that.

Kudos to Cleveland for helping the Twins out by the way. I still wish they'd helped by not sweeping the Twins a week or so ago, but that's water under the bridge at this point.

So it's come down to this. Chicago hosts the Detroit Tigers this afternoon (weather permitting) to make up a previously rained-out game. If Chicago wins, then the White Sox and the Twins will play a play-in game on Tuesday with the winner travelling to Tampa to start an ALDS series with the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday. If Detroit wins, the Twins are automatically in and will wing their way to Tampa tout de'suite!

So if you're reading this Monday afternoon, turn on ESPN2 and root, root, root for the Detroit Tigers!

Brewers/Mets: Crew fans, you did it. I'll admit to doubting. I'll admit to not rooting for you after dumping your skipper with 12 games left. But ultimately, your club proved me wrong and on the strength of CC Sabathia's mighty pitching arm, the Brewers are in the playoffs. They start a NLDS series against the Phillies Wednesday.

As for the Mets? Oof. Not so much. Another year. Another lead with 17 games to go. Another collapse. It wasn't quite as catastrophic this year, but it still had to be terribly disappointing given the additions they made in the off-season. Perhaps a full year of Jerry Manuel's managing efforts will make a difference. Perhaps.

Wisconsin Badgers: I can't talk about this. The wounds are still too raw. More to come on Friday.

Moving on...

It's time now for the Week 5 Post-Mortem on my college football picks!

Minnesota +18 @ Ohio State: Final Score - OSU 34, Minnesota 21

Well, I covered, so I should be happy. But the game didn't go at all like I thought it would. Don't get me wrong, Ohio State was far from dominant. But they made plays when the Gophers gave them opportunities. And frankly, the Gophers scored a couple of touchdowns in garbage time when the result had already been decided.

What Dan Learned: The Ohio State defense is better than I thought. Actually, they're as good as I thought they should be at the beginning of the year. They've rebounded nicely from some sub-par efforts early in the year. On offense, Terelle Pryor still has learning to do, but man is he going to be special in a year or two. And I'm still not sure Chris "Beanie" Wells is back all the way, but he certainly changes the way you defend the Buckeye offense with his presence alone.

So I was a tepid 1-0... but hey, that's still 1-0!

Next...

Ball State -18 vs. Kent State: Final Score - BSU 41, KSU 20

The Sports Take Flier Pick of the Week came through. Thanks go to ST reader Scott in Eau Claire who suggested this pick in the first place. If you missed his reasoning on Thursday, you can read it here.

What Dan Learned: Listen to your friends, but only when you feel their reasoning is sound. And if nothing else, make it your Flier Pick of the Week. That way you don't have to count it if it falls through!

2-0. What a start to the week. Let's keep it rolling!

Thirdly...

Auburn -6.5 vs. Tennessee: Final Score - Auburn 14, Tennessee 12

Okay. Apparently it's impossible for me to start 3-0 on a given week. One week Auburn's offense scores 20+ on last year's national champs, the next, they can only scratch out 14 against a team that's now 1-3. Oof.

What Dan Learned: I'll leave this to ST reader - and resident Vols fan - Jon in Maple Grove...

"I haven't seen Auburn play this year, but if they leave a crack open anywhere...Tennessee can score points on them. (Probably running. I don't trust this qb yet.) Will TN probably lose? Yeah. They suck. lol. But they suck with talent. And that is unpredictable. Will they all pull themselves together and get the SENIOR offensive line to start acting like it and stop fumbling and get Crompton to stop throwing like a curling major and finally win something? Maybe.

As I understand it, -6.5 still means everyone expects Auburn to win. :) But Tennessee has enough unknowns in there to drive people nuts. Trust me...I've watched them for 20 years."

"They suck with talent." That pretty much sums it up.

Finally...

Stanford +3.5 @ Washington: Final Score - Stanford 35, Washington 24

I thought the Cardinal would win this one outright, and they did. Getting the points was nice, but I'd probably have picked Stanford if they were giving 3.5 in this game. Washington's just that bad.

And now this thing's likely to snowball. I feel bad for Washington head coach Ty Willingham. I think he's a good man. But Washington's a proud program with a strong history. And I doubt their boosters are going to put up with this for much longer. It's sad.

What Dan Learned: Not much. This one went exactly how I thought. That's not cocky is it? Nah.

So another 3-1 week in the picks department. This is getting downright encouraging! 3-1 this week moves me to 12-8 (.600) on the year. All we do here at The Sports Take is make the people money! (On college football picks, this year, and this year alone.)

Finally today it's this week's edition of The Sports Take Mailbag. This week's question comes to us from ST reader Craig in Burnsville:

With the rumors of Lane Kiffin getting fired by Al Davis very soon, at what point does he start acting like George Costanza when he wanted to get fired by the Yankees so he could go to the Mets. I mean if you were Kiffin and knew that Al Davis wants you to resign so he didn't have to pay you, wouldn't you push the envelope as far as possible forcing him to pull the trigger. These are the kinds of thoughts that keep me up at night.

Good question Craig.

First of all, for those of you unfamiliar with the Seinfeld reference, I'll give you a quick recap. During an episode where George was working for the Yankees, he was approached by the Mets to be their Director of Scouting. But in order for the Mets to actually offer him the position, he needed to get fired by the Yankees, otherwise it constituted tampering. The gag was that no matter how hard George tried to get fired he couldn't. Viva la Steinbrenner!

Back to the matter at hand.

Lane Kiffin is the head coach of the Oakland Raiders. This past off-season it was leaked to the media that owner Al Davis wanted to make a coaching change, so he asked for Kiffin's resignation. Kiffin refused. Usually, this would lead to a firing. But because Davis would be on the hook for the rest of Kiffin's contract if he fired his coach, Davis refused to fire him. In the meantime, Kiffin wanted to make a change at defensive coordinator, but Davis refused to make that change as well.

So now you have an owner that doesn't want his head coach, a head coach who doesn't his defensive coordinator, and a defensive coordinator with a severe confidence problem. Sounds fun doesn't it?

I'm all for Craig's suggestion. If I were Kiffin I'd start doing crazy stuff, just to get Davis to fire me so I could get paid and get the hell out of that insane asylum.

It could be as simple as play-calling: "And the Raiders line up in the Wishbone?!"

Or it could be a wardrobe issue: "Is Lane Kiffin wearing a headband with 'Davis' written on it?!"

Or he could be the first coach in NFL history to be completely honest in a post-game press conference: "We suck. We're a terrible football team and we're not going to get any better while I'm around. I should be fired. Really. I should."

Kiffin won't be the first coach to be fired this season, St. Louis' Scott Linehan earned that honor today. But I think Lane isn't going to be far behind him. Just win baby!

That's all for today folks. It's now 2:30pm central as I write this, and the Chicago/Detroit game is still in a rain delay. Oof. The game has to be played though, so stay tuned. They'll get to it eventually! I'll be back Wednesday with the final Peek at the Picks segment for this baseball season and the official Sports Take Baseball Playoff Preview! Until then, thanks for reading!


26 September, 2008

Four Scores & DFTU


Hello again everybody...

It's the end of the week, but that's not even close to being foremost on my mind today. I've never been so pumped to write a blog before. Seriously, I lost sleep last night as I pondered the various ways I could approach what happened last night. In my seven and a half years at WCCO Radio, I don't think I've ever lost sleep over being excited for the next day at work. I've lost plenty dreading the next day at work, but never from excitement. Maybe I'm in the wrong business...

But that's another tangent. Today I've got to discuss what happened in the world of sports last night. Amazing stuff. I know that not everyone who reads this is a sports fan, and I respect that. But I honestly don't know how anybody could fail to get wrapped up in the excitement of last night. So I'll quit babbling and get right to it!

"Middle age is when you've met so many people that every new person you meet reminds you of someone else."
- Ogden Nash (1902 - 1971), American poet

First of all, let's discuss what happened last night...


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Minnesota Twins 7, Chicago White Sox 6 F-10
Holy crap what a baseball game this was. The Twins came into the game 2/3 of the way through the sweep they had to have if they wanted to have a solid shot at the playoffs. So the pressure was still squarely on their shoulders. And it showed in the 4th inning.

The Twins were leading 1-0 heading to the top of the 4th when the wheels seemed to come off. Orlando Cabrerra hit a solo shot off of Kevin Slowey to make it 1-1. Two batters later, Jim Thome hit a ball to deep right center that should have been caught. Only it wasn't because CF Carlos Gomez failed to call off RF Denard Span and the two ended up colliding while the ball dropped harmlessly to the turf. That, naturally, was followed by Paul Konerko grounding out to score another run.

Two batters after that, Alexi Ramirez reached on an infield single to score a third run. And two batters after that, Juan Uribe reached on a shot off of Slowey's arm. That was tough enough, but it was followed by a throwing error as Slowey tossed wide of first. That error scored 3 runs and suddenly it was 6-1 Chicago and you could've heard a pin drop in a stadium known for breaking decibel meters.

6-1. Oh my god. All that hard work. And just like that (insert snapping sound effect here) it seemed to all fall apart.

But this was when I remembered what's so beautiful about baseball: there's no clock. Whether it takes two hours and ten minutes, or four hours and ten minutes, a team has to record 27 outs. And until they do that, you can keep scoring runs. And it was in this spirit that I turned to WCCO Sports maven Mike Max and said, "Well at least they have five and a half innings to chip away at it." (Ask him, he'll confirm my story)

And chip away they did. Gomez made up for his top of the fourth gaffe by tripling-in Brian Buscher in the bottom of the fourth. That was immediately followed by a Denard Span double and suddenly it was 6-3. Never say die!

They tacked on another run in the 6th, which set up for the drama in the bottom of the 8th. By this time, I'd gotten back home from work and was able to watch the rest of the game in the comfort of the Sports Take home offices. Once again, it was the Gomez/Span-show as Carlos singled home Brendan Harris to make it 6-5. Span wasn't to be upstaged and tripled home Gomez to tie the game and suddenly Metrodome was rocking.

(Aside: My brother will want me to point out that after Span's triple, we were on the phone as he begged the Twins to get that run in - runner on 3rd, 1 out. I said, "can you conceive of a way they won't?" - assuming that either Alexi Casilla or Joe Mauer would come through. My brother immediately accused me of putting the whammy on the club. And after Casilla and Mauer failed to get the run in, my brother sent me several text messages which I can't reprint. Fortunately, my positivity won out in the end!)

Neither team scored in the 9th which sent them to extra innings. In the top of the 10th, Twins closer Joe Nathan came out for his second inning of work and promptly set the Sox down in order.

In the bottom of the 10th, the Twins won the game as only they can do. After a lead-off ground out, Nick Punto worked out a walk. Carlos Gomez grounded out to move Punto to second.

Then, on the first pitch to Denard Span, Chicago closer Bobby Jenks bounced one in front of catcher A.J. Pierzynski. The ball didn't get far away from A.J., but an alert Punto recognized the wild pitch, and knew A.J. couldn't throw me out on the base paths (I know that sounds like exaggeration for effect, but prior to last night, runners had attempted 102 steals on A.J. and he threw out exactly 11.... oof), and took 3rd.

Chicago manager Ozzie Guillen decided he didn't want Span to beat him and had him intentionally walked. That brought Alexi Casilla to the plate with runners on the corners and 2 outs. 'Lexi had 2 hits in the series coming into that at-bat, so it seemed like an astute move by Ozzie. It seemed that way right up until Casilla dumped a base hit into right field to score the game winning run.

I never saw the ball hit the ground. As soon as Casilla hit it, I knew it was going to be a hit and started jumping up and down, hooting and hollering in my apartment. My neighbors either thought that Rocky had returned, or that I had forgotten to take some important medication.

It was an incredible comeback to cap off a critical sweep and set the Twins up to win the division and make the playoffs in a year where most pundits (myself included) had written them off.

Wow.

Milwaukee Brewers 5, Pittsburgh Pirates 1 F-10/ NY Mets 7, Chicago Cubs 6
Prior to the Twins magical walk-off single, the Brewers came up with some walk-off wonder of their own. Tied at 1 with the Pirates in the 10th, the Brewers knew they had to win to keep pace with the Mets who'd already beaten the Cubs. Coaches and players will tell you that they don't scoreboard-watch. Hooey. I promise you every player, coach, trainer and equipment manager in the Brewers dugout was acutely aware of the Mets having won.

Turns out the pressure brought out the best in the Crew. They loaded the bases for LF Ryan Braun in the bottom of the 10th. And Braun came through with a moonshot walk-off grand slam that kept the Brewers tied for the Wildcard lead.

Overkill? Perhaps, but Miller Park was rocking every bit as much as the Metrodome would be about a half an hour later.

Oh, and a note about where a playoff game would be played should the Brewers and Mets/Phillies end up tied for the Wildcard. Thanks go to David in Milwaukee who passed along the following:

Brewers lost coin flips to both Philadelphia and NY, so if need play-offs with either one will be an away game.

So there you have it. If necessary, the Twins and the Brewers could end up on the road for a play-in game.

Oregon State 27, USC 21
Call it the curse of the Sports Take Poll, I guess. The day the Poll debuted, the number one team in the country vomited all over themselves on the road and quite possibly put to rest any chance they had at the national title.

I didn't see too much of this game as I was engrossed in the Twins comeback. But I was able to catch some in snippets. And from what I saw, it was clear that USC came out flat and unprepared. And that comes down to coaching.

Everyone wants to anoint Pete Carroll as one of the top football coaches in the country. And it's certainly hard to argue with his recruiting record. But this is now the second year in a row that he's had a team favored to win it all, which has gone on the road and lost to a clearly inferior team. I'm not sure how he could allow that to happen, but he did.

And now the trick for USC is that they play in one of the worst conferences in the country. That means that there aren't any marquee wins left for them on their schedule. So unless a whole mess of teams lose 2 games, the Trojans may be on the outs when it comes time to pick two teams to play for the title.

Incredible. Nights like that don't come along often folks. I hope you caught a piece of it, because they don't get much more exciting than that!

Now it's time for everybody's favorite segment: Dan's Favorite Teams Update!

Minnesota Twins: The Twins are 87-72, in first place in the AL Central and one-half game ahead of the Chicago White Sox.

"In first place in the AL Central." If you'd asked me in April what the odds of me being able to type those words in relation to the Twins on September 26th were, I'd have said 100-1 minimum.

But here we are. The Twins have 3 regular season games left against the Kansas City Royals at Metrodome. The White Sox return home to face the Cleveland Indians for what could be their final 3 games.

I say "could be" because should the Twins or the White Sox finish with only a half-game lead, Chicago will have to play a make-up game with Detroit on Monday to even out the records. Should Minnesota and Chicago be tied after that, then a play-in game will take place in Chicago on Tuesday.

Being as Minnesota has no control over what happens in Chicago this weekend, they need to focus on their business against Kansas City. If they sweep the Royals, then any loss by Chicago hands Minnesota the division.

This is where I have a small bit of concern. The Sox series was so emotional that I'm concerned for the Twins' ability to refocus themselves for tonight's game against KC. Last night I envisioned a scenario where the Twins players went back up into their clubhouse hooting and hollering, cranking the music and celebrating. Then in the midst of that celebration, a veteran like Mike Redmond or Eddie Guardado would call for the music to be shut off and everybody to calm down. They'd announce that the Twins haven't won anything yet. There is still a job to do. There are still three games to be won. Enjoy last night, but then come back focused to whip up on the Royals tonight.

I hope that happened, I really do.

It's Fransico Liriano tonight, Glen Perkins tomorrow and Scott Baker (if necessary) on Sunday.

God I love baseball!

Arizona Diamondbacks: The D'backs are 79-80 and have been eliminated from the playoffs.

*sigh*

What can I say? I adopted this team because of family ties and my desire to see a team make the playoffs since I started the season believing it was impossible for the Twins to make it.

Turns out I was dead wrong.

It's especially disappointing for Arizona fans given the tremendous start the Snakes had. A brilliant April turned into a mediocre May which descended into a gawd-awful June. And it just got uglier from there.

I give D'backs management a lot of credit. They made moves and did just about all you could ask them to in order to get this team to the playoffs. But in the end it just wasn't enough.

So now Arizona enters an off-season with a lot of questions. Brandon Webb has a contract to be worked out. Eric Byrnes has to decide whether he'll be healthy enough to play again. Orlando Hudson is a free agent. And his departure could start a lot of shuffling of the D'back infield. Randy Johnson is a year older. And it needs to be decided whether Max Scherzer can be a major league starter or not.

It'll be a challenging off-season. And the decisions general manager Josh Byrnes makes will determine just how competitive this club is next year.

Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers are 3-0 (0-0 in the Big Ten).

Wisconsin is coming off of a bye week, so there's not a lot to talk about. Other than what they're about to face.

Tomorrow marks the start of the Big Ten campaign for Bucky as they travel to Ann Arbor to face the "transitioning" Wolverines of Michigan. The Badgers enter the game as 6.5-point favorites. I can't argue with that.

Clearly Wisconsin has had a better non-conference journey than the Wolverines have had. But it's still a road-game in the Big 10. It's still the Big House. It's still Michigan. So I assume nothing.
Kickoff is at 2:30pm tomorrow. I'll be locked in.

That's it for this week folks. Hope you have a wonderful weekend. I'll be back on Monday, hopefully celebrating another Central Division championship! Until then, thanks for reading!

25 September, 2008

ST Top 10 College Football Poll & 2008 College Football Picks: Week 5


Hello again everybody...

I'm really excited for today's column for a lot of reasons, so I'm going to skip the usual preamble and get right to it!

First off, even though Thursdays are, and will continue to be, focused on college football, I have to toss in a couple of quick baseball notes:


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- Twins 3, White Sox 2
2 up and 2 down for Minnesota. Game 1 was a blow out. Game 2 was a nail-biter. The Twins played classic small-ball and received solid pitching performances not only from starter Nick Blackburn, but also from a recently beleaguered bullpen. It was the kind of gritty performance you love to see as a fan when you're team's battling for their playoff lives.

Now comes the key game. Win tonight and the Twins are in first place. Lose, and they're 1.5 games back and the last two nights go for naught. And here comes Gavin Floyd (16-8, 3.84) for the White Sox. Floyd's been a Twins-killer this year with a 3-1 record versus Minnesota with a 1.86 ERA. If there's any hope for the Twins, it's that Floyd's been better at home than on the road where he's 7-5 with a 4.05 ERA. The Twins counter with Kevin Slowey (12-11, 3.85) who's done his best work at Metrodome (7-4, 3.04).

Now that the Dodgers Magic Number has been reduced to 1, the Twins are the last DFT hope. Come on boys, don't leave me bored during the playoffs!

- Milwaukee 4, Pittsburgh 2/ Chicago 9, NY Mets 6 F-11
I doubted you Crew fans, and now you've done it. By virtue of the two scores above, the Brewers have tied the Mets for the Wildcard lead. Each team is 87-71 with 4 games remaining. If the race ends in a tie, a playoff game would be held Monday. And to be honest, I haven't heard where it would be played yet. Perhaps one of my Wisconsin readers could clue us in?

If you're not having fun watching these races, I'm not sure what I can really do with you. Really...

Right... moving on...

I'm perhaps more excited by the next segment than any other I've introduced since I started this blog back in April. It's time to unveil the first ever Sports Take Top 10 College Football Poll!

Before I get to the results, I'd like to thank the loyal ST readers who participated in this week's voting. There's always room for more voters, so if you're interested in participating next week or in future weeks, please drop me a line at: dcook93@yahoo.com.

So without further ado, here are the results of polling after four weeks of college football action:

1. USC (5) - 94

2. Oklahoma (2) - 78

3. Florida - 74

4. Georgia (2) - 71

5. LSU (1) - 61

6. Missouri - 54

7. Texas - 42

8. Alabama - 30

9. Wisconsin - 20

10. BYU - 9

Others Receiving Votes: Penn State 6, Texas Tech 6, Ohio State 3, Wake Forest 2

I don't think there are any major surprises in the poll. A surprise of the minor variety to me is that USC only got 5 of a possible 10 first place votes (the numbers in parentheses). I guess I expected that to be higher. But overall I thought the voters did a heck of a job. And nobody even tried to sneak a 4-0 Minnesota in at number 10! Too bad Gopher fans, that was your last shot this year! (Ooooh... cheap shot!)

Again my thanks to the voters. It seems like people had fun doing it. So let the debating begin! See something you see is out of whack? Add a comment to the blog and let us know why! Another version of the poll comes out next Thursday.

Finally today it's time for my Week 5 College Football Picks! This week I'm tweaking the format a little, listing the games in chronological order rather than in "order of confidence". I'll still point out which is the "Flier Pick" and which one I like best. With that...

Were recreational gaming legal, and were I to have the wherewithal to make a worthwhile wager, these are the games I'd be betting on:

Minnesota +18 @ Ohio State (11am): The Gophers are 4-0 (0-0). The Buckeyes are 3-1 (0-0).

I'm going against two wagering maxims here, so you can predict what the "What Dan Learned" paragraph will look like on Monday if this doesn't work out for me. One, I'm taking the road underdog, and two, I'm going against the money. This game opened at OSU -17 and moved to -18.

(Recreational Gaming 101 - The line moves in response to where the money goes. In this case, if more people are betting on OSU, the spread gets larger in an attempt to get betters to take Minnesota. If more people bet Minnesota, the spread gets smaller in an attempt to get betters to take OSU.

Sports Books want to balance the money they get on any given game, because that covers their losses. Here's how it works. If I wanted to bet this game, I'd have to wager 11-10 on the team I chose. For example, I'd have to bet $110 on Minnesota to win $100. That difference is called "the Vig". The Vig is how book-makers make their money. If a book-maker takes in $1100 on OSU and $1100 on Minnesota, then they take $1000 from the losing side to pay the winning side, and keep $100 for themselves. This is an extremely simplified example, but you get the general idea.)

So in this game, more money's being bet on OSU to win -18 points, than on Minnesota to win +18 points. I have no clue why this is.

Minnesota's offense has proven it can score points, while Ohio State's defense has proven it can give up points. That makes it tough for me to believe that OSU will win by 18+.

Yes, I know that Chris "Beanie" Wells is making his triumphant return for the Buckeyes this week, but I find it terribly difficult to believe he's all the way back to 100%. There still hasn't been anything remotely resembling full disclosure on his injury, and that still says to me that he's hurt worse than OSU has let on. Freshman QB Terrelle Pryor showed glimpses last week why he was so highly recruited. He's got tons of talent. But he's still a freshman. And that makes him vulnerable to mistakes.

Apparently other people are seeing something here that I'm not, but I'm going with my instincts and taking Minnesota +18 here.

Next...

Ball State -18 vs. Kent State (11am): Ball St. is 4-0. Kent St. is 1-3.

Loyal ST reader Scott from Eau Claire has been sending me picks of his own since Week 1. Unfortunately, he's imitating my picking ability from last year, so I haven't used any of them. But this week, he and I are thinking along the same lines. To wit, here's his reasoning on this game:

"I know it's a bunch of points, but here's my logic-
(Each team has a win versus a Division 1AA team, but here are the results not counting those)

Ball State (4-0): 12-point win versus Navy; 17-point win at Akron; 22-point win at Indiana.

Kent State (1-3): 21-point loss versus Boston College; 20-point loss at Iowa State (ISU's only win versus a Div 1A team); 17-point loss at Louisiana-Lafayette (ULL's only win versus a Div 1A team)

Not only is Kent State losing, it is losing to bad teams. Ball State is at home, and more than that, it's Ball State's Homecoming weekend! The stadium will be filled to capacity and the Homecoming crowd will be deafening. This will keep the Cards amped all afternoon. The Cardinals need impressive wins to get into the "BCS Buster" talk, I think this one could be ugly."

I can't refute any of that, but I'm going to hedge my bet and make this the official Sports Take Flier Pick of the Week. So let's give the 18 and take Ball State!

Thirdly...

Auburn -6.5 vs. Tennessee (2:30pm): Auburn is 3-1 (1-1). Tennessee is 1-2 (0-1)

This is another line that left me scratching my head. Yes, I still do that even with the limited amount of hair I have to scratch!

Auburn went toe-to-toe with LSU, last year's national champs, and only lost in the closing minute. Tennessee got worked by Florida at home, and lost on the road to a UCLA team that's been crushed every game since. Auburn's at home and motivated coming off a loss. Tennessee's wondering if their head coach is going to survive the season.

How is this line not Auburn -14?!

This seems pretty straight-forward to me, so we're giving the 6.5 and picking Auburn to win.

I should also mention, this is another pick Scott from Eau Claire agrees with me on, so take that into account before you bet the retirement fund on this game.

Finally...

Stanford +3.5 @ Washington (9pm): Stanford is 2-2 (1-1). Washington is 0-3 (0-1).

Two road underdogs in the same week?! Am I mad?!

Perhaps, but this one seems logical to me. Washington is horrible. The game against BYU sucked the soul out of them. And now people aren't asking if Ty Willingham will keep his job, they're asking who'll be the next head coach. Not a good sign.

Stanford is 0-2 on the road, but both of those games were against legit teams: Arizona St. and TCU. Again, I'll remind you, Washington is awful. As long as head coach Jim Harbaugh keeps his charges from looking ahead to Notre Dame, I think Stanford wins this game outright. And getting the 3.5 is just icing on the cake.

So there are your 4 picks for this week. Enjoy the games on Saturday and look for the Week 5 Post-Mortem on Monday!

That's all for today. I'm back tomorrow with more baseball. I'll either be jubilant with the Twins in the lead of the Central, or I'll be desolate and trying to figure out the math on how the Twins can avoid elimination. Until then, thanks for reading!

24 September, 2008

Battle for the Playoffs & Peek at the Picks


Hello again everybody...

For those of you wondering, I don't have a new Rocky story. Sorry about that. But as near as I can tell, the little rascal hasn't made his way back into my humble abode. And in the mean time, I've got two new screens sans "Rocky entrance flaps". Thank heavens.

So on to today's column. There are 3 critical series being played in the world of baseball right now. All of which have direct impact on who'll be playing next week and who won't. I'll discuss each of them. Then it's the penultimate version of the Peek at the Picks segment! Let's get to it...

"Don't worry about the world coming to an end today. It's already tomorrow in Australia."
- Charles M. Schulz (1922 - 2000), American cartoonist

Leave it to Charlie Brown to offer a little perspective!


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Three big series continue tonight in Major League Baseball...

Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: The Twins defeated the White Sox last night 9-3 to shrink Chicago's lead in the AL Central to 1.5 games. P Scott Baker went 7 solid innings for the Twins surrendering only 1 earned run. DH Jason Kubel was the offensive star, going 3 for 4 with 2 home runs and a triple.

Chicago's starting pitcher, Javier Vasquez was cooked before he ever threw a pitch. In that style that only he can pull off, White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen referred to Vasquez as "not a big game pitcher".

Let's see. You're going into the biggest series of the season with your playoff hopes on the line. And you, as the manager, decide to call the guy who you started last week on short rest just so he could start this very game, "not a big game pitcher"? Really Ozzie? I mean I've heard of reverse psychology and all, but this is just ridiculous.

And even more ridiculous is the fact that when Vasquez was asked about the quote, he basically agreed that he didn't have a history of coming through in the clutch.

How in the name of all that's holy is a team this dysfunctional in first place? Good god.

Game 2 is tonight and it's just as much of a "must-win" situation for the Twins as last night's game was. Minnesota needs to sweep this series to have any real shot at the playoffs. A sweep would put the Twins in first place by a half-game. Winning 2 out of 3 would leave the Twins 1.5 games behind with 3 to go. That wouldn't eliminate them, but would require the White Sox to lose 2 out of 3 over the weekend for the Twins to have any shot.

So clearly the Twins are in "must win" mode. Nick Blackburn (10-10, 4.15) takes the hill for the Twins against Chicago's Mark Beuhrle (14-11, 3.87). There was a long stretch of time a few years ago where the Twins had no shot against Beuhrle. But this year he's only 1-2 against the Twins with a 5.79 ERA. So the Twins certainly have a shot.

To win they'll need Blackburn to step up his performance. He has an ERA over 10 in his last 3 starts. Another outing like that would be costly.

Thursday's outing might be the best match-up of the three games as Minnesota sends Kevin Slowey (12-11, 3.85) to the hill to counter Chicago's Gavin Floyd (16-8, 3.84).

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: The bad karma of firing your manager with 12 games to go aside, the Brewers are still in the race for the NL Wildcard.

The Crew beat the Pirates last night 7-5 to stay within a game of the Mets, who hold the Wildcard lead.

Tonight, Milwaukee comes back with CC Sabathia (9-2, 1.81) on short rest against the Pirates Paul Maholm (9-8, 3.68). Sabathia is clearly Milwaukee's best shot down the stretch, since Ben Sheets is out with an injury. But in his last 3 starts Sabathia is 0-2 with a 3.66 ERA.

And then there's the short rest bit. For better or for worse, modern starting pitchers are used to four days of rest between their starts. And being creatures of habit, it can seriously screw with their performance if you start them with less than those four days of rest. But big time pitchers perform in big time games regardless of the rest. And I expect one of those style performances from CC tonight.

Milwuakee hasn't announced a starter for Thursday's series ender as they're still hoping Ben Sheets could be available.

It's not as critical for the Brewers to sweep the Pirates. But Pittsburgh's a bottom-feeder. And if you're going to be a playoff team, you're supposed to clean up on the bottom-feeders. With only 5 games left, maybe a sweep is critical!

New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: The Cubs have their playoff spot sewn up. The question remains, will the Mets be joining them? In fact, if the Mets do win the Wildcard, they'd open up in Chicago, so we could be seeing a Division Series preview!

The Mets won the opener over the Cubs last night 6-2. Johan Santana stepped up and showed why the Mets gave him the richest contract for a pitcher in baseball history by throwing 8 innings, surrendering 2 earned runs and striking out 10 batters. That's an ace. That's a stopper. That's Johan in the clutch.

The Cubs counter tonight by sending their ace, Carlos Zambrano (14-6, 3.77) to the mound against Odalis Perez (10-7, 4.10). It's hard to know what to expect in this game. Zambrano followed up his no-hitter against the Astros by getting shelled by the Cardinals and lasting only 1 2/3 innings. I'd imagine it's hard to get psyched up for games now that Chicago has clinched their division and has all but sewn-up homefield advantage through out the NL playoffs.

Thursday's game pits the Cubs' Rich Harden (5-1, 1.66) versus New York's Pedro Martinez (5-6, 5.50).

Chicago manager Lou Pinella says he's not going to wholesale rest his players because he feels it'd be unfair to the teams still battling for playoff spots. But it's still got to be tough for his guys to be giving 100% when they're not playing for anything. Meanwhile, these games are critical for the Mets who still have a shot at the NL East.

Finally today, it's the penultimate Peek at the Picks segment, where I compare my preseason picks to the current MLB standings, and you all make fun of how poorly I did! Don't ever say I don't entertain you!

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies, 89-69 (Dan's Pick: NY Mets, 1.5 Games Back)
I still haven't given up the ghost on this one. If the Mets win the division, that just about ensures that Milwaukee won't make the playoffs, so my Wisconsin friends aren't going to like me pulling for the Mets. But as poorly as I'm doing in the picks, I've got to cling to what I can!
Philadelphia's Magic Number: 4

NL Central: Chicago Cubs, 95-61 (DP: Cubs)
The Cubbies clinched over the weekend, so this is the first - and possibly only - pick I've officially gotten right. Milwaukee's still hanging around the Wildcard race. The rest of the Central teams are dusting off the golf clubs.

NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers, 82-75 (DP: Arizona Diamondbacks, 3 GB)
This one's very near to over. The D'backs aren't eliminated yet, but their loss last night with the LA win was a killer. If they could've kept that deficit at 2 games, they'd still be right in it, but being 3 games behind with 5 to go is almost impossible to overcome. Never say die Arizona! Right? Oof.
L.A.'s Magic Number: 3

NL Wildcard: New York Mets, 87-70 (DP: LA Dodgers, 5 GB)
Crew fans you're still in this. But that Magic Number is starting to dwindle. The killer part of the Magic Number when you're behind is that even if you win, it can shrink. It goes down a game every time the Mets win. And if you combine a Mets win with a Milwaukee loss, that would about end it. I always get nervous depending on a starter who's going on short rest, but this is CC Sabathia, and this is why you traded for him.
Mets Magic Number: 5

AL East: Tampa Bay Rays, 95-62 (DP: Boston, whom I hate, 3 GB)
This one's just about over and I've never been happier to be wrong. No one and I mean no one saw this coming out of Tampa. It's by far the best story in baseball this year and some hardware will be coming Tampa's way because of it (manager of the year trophy, division pennant, etc.). Boston (whom I hate) won last night to seal up their entry into the playoffs. Normally this would annoy me to a great degree, but by eliminating the Yankees, I won $10 from a guy in the news room. So I'm not quite as peeved. I do however still hate the Red Sox.
Tampa's Magic Number: 3

AL Central: Chicago White Sox, 86-70 (DP: Detroit, 15 GB)
The only real race left is between the White Sox and the Twins. I discussed it ad nauseum earlier, so I won't belabor the point. The Tigers meanwhile are tied for last place in the division. Unreal. Tampa's a bigger surprise, but there's no way anyone saw this train wreck coming either.
Chicago's Magic Number: 5

AL West: Los Angeles Angels, 97-60 (DP: Seattle, 39 GB)
This one's been sewn up forever. All the Angels are trying to do now is make sure everyone's healthy and prepare for either the Red Sox (whom I hate) or the Rays. Unfortunately for those of you who entered the "How far back will Seattle finish" contest, they've outdone all the guesses at this point. One of you still has a mathematical shot, but it's not looking good!

AL Wildcard: Boston Red Sox (whom I hate), 92-65 (DP: Cleveland, 13 GB)
Boston (whom I hate) is in the playoffs, the only question is whether it's as the Wildcard or the AL East division champ. Odds are it'll be as the Wildcard. But it's not a mortal lock just yet.

So I've got 1 pick right. And I'm alive in 3 others, though one of them is on serious life-support. But the odds are this is going to be a "less than .500" season for the Picks. Oh well, I'm still kicking tail at college football right?!

That's all for today. I'm back tomorrow with the Week 5 College Football picks. Until then, thanks for reading!

22 September, 2008

Rocky II, Week 4 Post-Mortem & ST Mailbag


Hello again everybody...

It's the last day of my vacation, so once again I'm writing to you from the ST home offices. Those of you who read Friday's column know about the invasion of the home offices by one Rocky the squirrel.

Apparently, he's a tenacious little bugger.

Sunday morning, I awoke to yet another noise that was clearly emanating from within my apartment. Still on guard from Friday's episode, I immediately sprang from bed to find Rocky had returned.

How could this happen? Didn't I learn from Friday? Well, partially I did.

I shut my sliding glass door so he couldn't enter the way he did on Friday. I didn't shut the other window in my living room however. So this time the resourceful rodent climbed along the deck railing and onto my window ledge where he proceeded to chew and claw his way through the screen covering that window. And once again, Rocky was trying to set up shop in my apartment.

Feeling incredulous that this could possibly happen again, I went and got my broom to shoo him out. This time, he got the message, and as I returned, he was already in the process of scampering back out the way he came.

So now I have matching holes in my screens. Joy. The maintenance folks are never going to believe this.

Moving on...

Today, I've got the post-mortem on my Week 4 college football picks. A promising start to the day didn't finish as planned. Then it's this week's version of the ST Mailbag. So let's get to it...

"The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. It is the source of all true art and science."
- Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955), German-born theoretical physicist


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Some would say that my picks results so far this year are mysterious. Would they remain so after Week 4? Let's find out!

Alabama -9.5 @ Arkansas: Final Score - Alabama 49, Arkansas 14.

This was a good start to the day for me. The biggest spread I picked covered. I didn't get to see the game, but from what I read it wasn't as close as the score indicated.

That being said, it also wasn't the offense explosion the score might lead you to believe. The Tide had 2 interceptions for touchdowns. So the defense pitched in and did their part in the Alabama rout.

What Dan Learned: Arkansas is bad... just bad. I fully expect them to be nearly 30-point underdogs next week against Texas. Maybe they'll progress as the season goes along. Clearly Bobby Petrino has his hands full. And as they play in the SEC, they might be an easy pick to not cover the rest of the year though.

So I was 1-0 and off to another solid start.

The "Flier Pick of the Week" was up next...

Florida -7.5 @ Tennessee: Final Score - Florida 30, Tennessee 6

By the time Saturday rolled around, I'd honestly convinced myself that this game was going to be a lot closer than it turned out.

And if you look at the stats, it probably could have been.

Tennessee had more total yards than Florida in the game, but they also had massive turnover issues. They turned the ball over twice inside Florida's 5 yard line. And as I recall, the Gators turned both of those turnovers into points. So it ended up being something like a 24-point swing in favor of Florida. Those kinds of mistakes are nearly impossible to get over.

And Tennessee didn't.

What Dan Learned: I'm not going to predict Tennessee head coach Phil Fulmer's demise just yet - I made that mistake last year, and the guy got his club into the SEC Championship game. But he's now 0-4 against Florida's Urban Meyer, and something like 4-11 in his career against the Gators. That can't be sitting too well in Knoxville.

So now I was 2-0 and feeling fantastic... until...

North Carolina -3 vs. Virginia Tech: Final Score - Virginia Tech 20, North Carolina 17

This game was actually going quite well for me to start. NC led 17-3 in the third quarter. Their offense wasn't dominant by any means, but their defense was playing well.

Then Tarheels QB T.J. Yates got hurt and everything changed.

Suddenly the North Carolina offense stalled completely and the Hokies were given a new boost of confidence.

17 unanswered Virginia Tech points later, it was 20-17 Hokies and I was cursing the injury gods.

What Dan Learned: You can't control injuries. You can use all the logic and reasoning in the world to come up with a solid feel for a game, but in the end if a QB tweaks his leg, you can still lose. Welcome to the wonderful world of recreational gaming!

So that moved me to 2-1 and reliant on Mississippi to try and stay above .500 for the second consecutive week.

Mississippi -7.5 vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score - Vandy 23, Ole Miss 17

Oof. That didn't work out so well.

Either Jevan Snead isn't the quarterback that I thought he was, or Vandy's defense is a lot better than I figured.

I didn't see the game, so I can't make that kind of judgement.

What I can tell you is that the Rebs turned the ball over 6 times, 4 of which were on Snead interceptions. That's beyond awful. Someone could check, but I'd be willing to bet that no team has ever turned the ball over 6 times in a major conference football game and won that game.

What Dan Learned: Vanderbilt is better than I thought. Ole Miss isn't going to win the SEC, but any road win in that league (outside of Arkansas perhaps) is a heck of an accomplishment. Vandy's reputation may be enough to earn us lines that are higher than they should be for the next few weeks. I'll have to think seriously about taking them as an underdog.

So, another week of 2-2. Oh well. .500 isn't the end of the world. Overall I'm 9-7, which is still a vast improvement over last year.

Finally today, it's this week's Sports Take Mailbag segment.

Today's question comes to us from Mark in Maple Grove:

Is it possible that it could be argued that three of the four major end of the season awards (for sure two) should be won by players dealt for mid season…

Manny – NL MVP…no player has had a bigger impact on his team than he has in the second half except for maybe…

Sabathia – NL Cy Young…he has been dominant!!!

And this one might be a stretch…but it could be argued…

Teixeira – AL MVP…they were pretty good before he got there…but he has been a force in that line up since he got there.

I guess I hadn't really thought of it like that - outside of Sabathia - but it's an interesting point.

The races are so wide open that it's certainly within the realm of possibility that all three could be the winners of their respective awards. And near as I can tell, that would be unprecedented.

I'll be handing out my personal awards ballot after the regular season is done. So I won't reveal those names here.

I will say however that I think it's unlikely that any of those 3 will actually win their respective awards.

More importantly though, we have to ask what it means that 3 guys can change leagues mid-season and be considered for those awards?

I think it means one of two things. Either we're in a down-cycle in terms of dominant talent in baseball. And that means that in a few years, we'll be back to having clear-cut winners.

Or it means that we're starting to achieve the level of parity in baseball that we see in the NFL. That the talent is so evenly spread over the league, that it's become near to impossible to have the kind of dominant season that we've seen in the past.

I guess I'd surmise that it's the former rather than the latter. But that remains to be seen!

Either way, the awards list will be something of a surprise this year.

Thanks for the question Mark!

Remember, if you want your question answered by the ST staff, just send an email to: dcook93@yahoo.com.

That's all for today. I'm back on Wednesday with more on baseball! Until then, thanks for reading!

19 September, 2008

End of an Era & DFTU


Hello again everybody...

I'm writing the column today from The Sports Take's home offices. I know you're all terribly concerned about how my vacation time is going. Well so far it's been fairly unproductive, and that's just how I like it. Not all vacations are about getting "other" things done. Some are just about rest and relaxation. That's mine, so far.

Outside of one little incident this morning that is...

I awoke this morning to a strange sound which seemed to be coming from my living room. In a "I'm kind of awake, but not really awake" style fog, I managed to convince myself that it was the neighbors getting something out of their storage closet in the hallway and promptly fell back asleep. That is, until I heard another sound. And this one was definitely coming from my living room.

Now understand that I live on the 5th floor of my building. The odds that a prowler is going to climb up the decks to break into *my* apartment are slim. So I usually leave my windows, including the sliding glass door which leads to my deck, open except for the screens. Especially when we're having such lovely weather. So I wasn't afraid I was going to find someone trying to steal my TV.

The concerns I did have were confirmed however, when I rounded the corner and saw a bushy tail go scampering into the kitchen. That's right, the squirrel (whom I've nicknamed Rocky) who up until now has been content with occasionally hanging out on my deck, decided I needed a roommate and had clawed his way through my screen door and taken up residence in my living room. The noises that I'd heard were him checking out the various furniture. Joy.

So I tried to herd him back towards the door while explaining to him that if he couldn't help with the rent, he didn't get to stay. But while Rocky seemed more than willing to leave, he'd apparently forgotten how he got in originally. He just sat by the door and sort of stared at it. So I backed off and let him start to wander again, went and got a broom, just in case Rocky decided to take a stand, and skirted my way around him to throw open the screen door. Then I circled back around and started trying to shoo Rocky towards the door. This time he got the message and scampered out, after which, I shut and locked the sliding glass door.

Sorry Rocky, but I don't' need a roommate.

So that was my morning cup of coffee. How are y'all doin?

With that, I suppose I should get to today's actual column. Sunday marks the end of an era as the final game will be played at venerable Yankee Stadium. I have a few thoughts. Then it's this week's version of the DFTU. I call it the "Never Say Die" edition. So let's get to it!

"I didn't really say everything I said."
- Yogi Berra (1925 - ), former Major League Baseball player and manager

The quintessential Yogism. Which leads to the first topic...


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Yankee Stadium. The House that Ruth built. Home of the Bronx Bombers. The curtain closes on Sunday. The New York Yankees, proud owners of 26 World Championships and 39 American League Pennants will move to their new facility, the new "Yankee Stadium", beginning next season. So Sunday's final home game is also the final game for the original facility.

The move is rather metaphorical I think. Change is inevitable. Progress must be made. But what makes baseball such an attractive sport I think is that even in the process of change, great efforts are made to pay homage to the past. And the history of the sport, it's players, and it's edifices are lovingly preserved.

Yankee Stadium opened in April of 1923. And in the intervening 85 years, has seen more significant moments in baseball than any other piece of architecture in the world.

It saw Babe Ruth hit 60 home runs. It saw Roger Maris hit 61.

It saw Lou Gehrig give his famous retirement speech. And it saw Reggie Jackson and Billy Martin trade words of a more infamous nature.

It saw Joe DiMaggio hit in 56-straight games. And it saw Mickey Mantle get his 500th hit.

It saw perfect pitching from Don Larsen, David Cone and David Wells (against the Twins dammit). And it saw Roger Clemens throw a bat-shard at Mike Piazza.

But it wasn't just Yankees that created memorable moments at the Stadium. The Dodgers' Sandy Koufax set the strikeout record there. The Royals' George Brett had a mild disagreement with an umpire over the correct placement of pine-tar on a bat there. And the Red Sox (whom I hate) had a pitcher named Curt Schilling who ruined a perfectly good sock by bleeding on it there.

And those just scratch the surface. There are hundreds more memories that have been and will continue to be written about, discussed and argued over for the rest of time.

I never got to go to Yankee Stadium. But I know folks who have. And their descriptions of Monument Park, the bleachers in right, and the roar of the Bronx faithful are as vivid to me as if I'd walked the grounds myself.

So if you have a chance Sunday evening, flip on ESPN. Take a look around the old ballpark. Picture Mantle and DiMaggio in center field, Maris and Jackson in right, Gehrig and Mattingly at first base. Picture Yogi Berra behind the plate and Phil Rizzuto at short. Picture Whitey Ford on the mound, handing the ball to Goose Gossage or Mariano Rivera to seal the win.

Take it all in. Because it's the last time you'll ever see a game played there.

The new Yankee Stadium is said to be a baseball palace. And given the Yankees owners penchant for spending money, I have no doubt it's exactly that. I also don't doubt that great care will be taken to honor as much of the history you've just read about as humanly possible.

But it's not the House that Ruth built. And it won't ever be. Life goes on.

Finally this week, it's time for everybody's favorite segment: Dan's Favorite Teams Update!

Minnesota Twins: The Twins are 83-70, in second place in the AL Central and 1.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox.

I mentioned to a friend the other day, "The Twins' playoff chances are on life-support, but Chicago refuses to pull the plug". Which is a pretty apt description if you ask me.

I can't imagine how a team that's in the playoff hunt can go into Cleveland, get swept, and somehow manage to stay in the race. That just shouldn't be possible. But there you have it.

The Twins got broomed by the Tribe to start the week, but the Whities couldn't take advantage as they dropped 3 of 4 to the Yankees (thank you Bombers). Combined with the Twins' comeback victory over the Rays last night, Minnesota remains where they started the trip: 1.5 games back.

Why is that such a critical number? Because if the Twins can get it down to a half-game before the White Sox come to town next week, then winning 2 out of 3 in that series gives them the division lead. Putting themselves in a position to not have to sweep Chicago is huge. And the task continues this weekend as the Twins take on the AL East leading Rays.

The White Sox on the other hand are spending the weekend in Kansas City. On paper that would seem to be a huge advantage for Chicago. But so far this year, White Sox pitching has surrendered 52 runs to the Royals in 6 games at Kaufmann Stadium. Hopefully it remains a House of Horrors for the Sox this weekend.

As I said, the Twins continue their 4-game set with the Rays this weekend. Then they're back home on Tuesday for 3 critical games with Chicago. Damn baseball's fun, ain't it?

Arizona Diamondbacks: The D'backs are 76-76, in second place in the NL West and 3.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The boys are trying Snakes fans. They've won 4 in a row and have managed to claw their way back to .500. Too little, too late? Perhaps. But as I keep saying, the Dodgers aren't running away and hiding. And until they're mathematically eliminated, the D'backs are gonna give it a go.

Witness the gritty effort by Randy Johnson last night as the D'backs beat Cy Young candidate Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants. That's not a game most pundits would chalk up as a win for Arizona, but they gutted it out, made the most of their opportunities and got the win.

It's going to take several more of those types of efforts, as well as some help from the Dodgers to get the D'backs into the playoffs. But it's still possible!

If the Rockies could do it last year, why not the D'backs this year? Am I right people?

The D'backs travel to Colorado over the weekend and then to St. Louis on Monday. Maybe Albert Pujols will rest his elbow or something. C'mon Al. Help us out here!

Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers are 3-0 (0-0) after defeating Fresno State on the road, 13-10.

It wasn't a pretty game by any means. And there weren't a lot of highlights that will be destined for the archives. But it was a win. And sometimes that's all that really matters.

This was a game that Wisconsin was supposed to win, yet many of the pundits out there picked Fresno to upset the Badgers. Wisconsin certainly doesn't have overwhelming talent, and the Bulldogs are a good team. Plus they had the home-field advantage.

But in the end, Wisconsin's defense got the job done, stopping Fresno on their final drive of the game and securing the 13-10 victory.

The game wasn't without controversy however. In the 3rd quarter, a Fresno tight end made a catch and was stripped of the ball by Wisconsin LB Jonathan Casillas. The Badgers recovered the fumble and were still celebrating when Fresno State head coach Pat Hill threw his challenge flag and asked that the play be reviewed. The review officials decided that the Bulldog player never really had full possession of the ball and overturned the call on the field.

The only problem was, the call on the field was correct. That's been confirmed by far more unbiased eyes than mine. The receiver clearly controlled the football, "made a football move" as they say, and then was stripped of the ball. Wisconsin should've had the ball deep in Fresno territory and had the opportunity to salt the game away.

Thankfully the blown call didn't cost them the game.

The Badgers have their bye week this week, giving them two weeks to prepare for their trip to Ann Arbor, Michigan to take on the "transitioning" (copyright Hammer) Wolverines. It's another game the Badgers should be favored in, and another game they ought to win. More on that next week.

That's all for this week folks. Hope you've had a good one, and hope you have a fantastic weekend. I'm off to watch some High School football tonight (go Crimson!). I'll be back on Monday with the Week 4 Post-Mortem and a special double-Mailbag! Until then, thanks for reading!

17 September, 2008

2008 College Football Picks: Week 4


Hello again everybody...

Well not so much with getting the column up early, but as promised, here are my week 4 picks. Remember the Sports Take Top 10 College Football Poll starts after this week's games. If you'd like to be a voter, email me at: dcook93@yahoo.com.

So without further ado, let's get to pickin!


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As always, were recreational gaming legal, and were I to have the wherewithal to make a worthwhile wager, these are the games I'd be betting on:

Mississippi -7 vs. Vanderbilt: This one has shoot-out written all over it. Neither team has scored less than 24 points in their first 3 games.

Vanderbilt is 3-0 (1-0 SEC) with a moderately impressive win over South Carolina at home. The Commodores are usually doormats in the SEC, but every now and then they jump up to bite people.

Mississippi is 2-1, with this being their first SEC match-up of the year. Their toughest match-up of the year so far was at Wake Forest, a game they very nearly won.

But now they're at home and in need of a good start to the conference schedule. I like their QB Jevan Snead a lot. He's a transfer from Texas where he was barely beaten out by Colt McCoy.

Combine that with home-field advantage (not to mention the fact that this game has gone from -5 to -7, which means the money's going squarely on Ole Miss) and I feel okay giving the points and taking Mississippi in a shoot-out.

Go Rebs!

Next...

Alabama -9.5 @ Arkansas: Yes it's the road team, but at least they're favored!

And in my opinion, Arkansas is the worst 2-0 team in the nation. In fact, I was 100% prepared to pick against them last week as 20+ point underdogs to Texas before Hurricane Ike intervened.

So while they've technically had 2 weeks to prepare for 'Bama, the first week was spent trying to figure out what was going to happen to the Texas game, so no advantage there.

And no real time to fix what ails them. Yes, the Razorbacks are 2-0, but they've beaten Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe by a combined 5 points.

Meanwhile the Tide have been rolling (if you'll forgive the pun). After hammering ACC-favorite Clemson in Week 1, they've beaten Tulane and Western Kentucky soundly since.

So I like Alabama to keep cruising and win this game by 14 minimum.

2 picks, 2 favorites. Will the trend continue?

Thirdly...

North Carolina -3 vs. Virginia Tech: I may be out of my mind for continuing to pick ACC games, but I really think Virginia Tech continues to be over-rated.

The Hokies are 2-1 (1-0) with victories over Furman and Georgia Tech after a season-opening loss to East Carolina. This team has all kinds of issues deciding on their quarterback, and their usually stout special teams have been sketchy so far this year.

North Carolina is 2-0 (0-0) after destroying Rutgers on the road last week. That got people's attention very quickly. Now it's time for head coach Butch Davis to show people whether his program's for real or not.

3 points isn't much to give at home, and I can easily see UNC winning by a touchdown or more. So let's give the 3 and take the 'Heels!

Finally...

It's time for The Sports Take Flier Pick of the Week:

Florida -7.5 @ Tennessee: Sorry Jon... but I have to do it.

It's been a tale of 2 games for the Vols. A major upset on the road at UCLA and then home to crush Alabama-Birmingham. So which is the real Tennessee? We should have a better idea after Saturday.

Meanwhile the Gators have had 2 weeks to prepare for their first road contest of the year. They're rested and healthy. And it sounds like they're ready to turn uber-frosh Percy Harvin loose against the Vols defense.

Tough to give up nearly 8 on the road in a rivalry game. But I think Florida rolls here.

There's your picks for this week. I'm back tomorrow with the usual Friday goodness. Until then, thanks for reading!

Baseball Notes & Peek at the Picks


Hello again everybody...

It's the middle of the week for most of you. But for me it's Friday baby! These are my first non-illness-inspired days off since the Fair/RNC and I can't wait to not work! Okay, okay, I won't rub it in. I dearly hope the rest of the week goes smoothly for the rest of you. But not too fast. I want to enjoy my time off as much as I can.

To wit, I fully intend to get my regular Thursday Picks Column and Friday Column up as per usual. The plan right now is to have them up earlier than usual actually since I have plans Thursday and Friday afternoon. But you know what they say about "the best laid plans". So we'll see. One way or the other, I'll get them up there though. Count on that!

With that, let's get to today's docket. Today I'm going to run down a series of notes from the world of baseball. Then it's this week's Peek at the Picks. So let's get to it...

"I do not feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us to forgo their use."
- Galileo Galilei (1564 - 1642), Tuscan (Italian) physicist, mathematician, astronomer, and philosopher

Guy's got a point there doesn't he?


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Here's some random thoughts from the world of baseball:

Houston Whiners: There was a lot of sobbing coming out of the Astros clubhouse over the weekend. Because of Hurricane Ike, and the necessity of playing the games, two games from the Cubs/Astros series were moved from Houston to Miller Park in Milwaukee. Houston manager Cecil Cooper so objected to playing a "home game" in a park that was 90 miles from Chicago, that he sent his team out in their "road" uniforms in protest of the situation.

My thought? Shut up and play. Miller Park didn't no-hit you in the first game. And the fine citizens of Milwaukee didn't 1-hit you in the second game. I think Cooper made such a stink about it leading into those games that he basically psyched his team out. And it may have cost them their shot at the playoffs.

And even if you think the Astros are justified in their griping, they're upset at the wrong person. Houston owner Drayton McLane had to approve this move. These were his games. There's no way that Bud Selig could force the Astros to move those games without McLane's approval.

Houston, you created your own problem. Ya dopes...

Next...

Target Field: The Minnesota Twins have announced the name of their new ballpark set to open in April of 2010. Target Field. Color me underwhelmed. Intellectually, it makes a ton of sense. Target Corporation is a strong Minnesota-based company that has strong ties to the community. Plus Target also has the naming-rights to the Timberwolves arena (Target Center) which is located in close proximity to Target Field. So there are all kinds of synergistic opportunities with the two facilities.

But anyone who knows me, knows I was campaigning for another name. I wanted it to be called "Best Buy Ballpark". Obviously I'm a sucker for alliteration, so that scratches my grammatical itch nicely. Plus Best Buy is also a strong local company with plenty of community service that would jive nicely with what the Twins are looking for.

But mostly, I wanted the term "ballpark" in the name. I think it's important to distinguish this facility from the multi-purpose "stadiums" we've had here in the past. I think fans are going to be blown away by the experience of being in a baseball-only facility (or in the case of the U of M's TCF Bank Stadium, a football-only facility). That's something we've never had here in Minnesota. At least not at the major-professional level. Met Stadium in Bloomington was designed for both the Vikings and the Twins. The HHH Metrodome was designed for both of them as well. Plus it hosted the Gophers, Timberwolves, College Basketball Tournaments and hundreds of other events. But Target Field is baseball-specific, even if the name doesn't quite make that clear. I wish they would've made that more distinct.

The other name possibility that I had started to warm up to was "Land O' Lakes Field". Not as good as the "B", but I liked the idea of being able to say, "Let's go to The Lake" and mean you were going to a ballgame. But as Sports Take reader Rob in Milwaukee pointed out, the acronym would be L.O.L. which in text-messaging parlance means "laugh out loud" which would not go over well if the team found itself in a slump!

So Target Field it is. Eh. I don't hate it. And I'm sure I'll get used to it. But it wasn't what I was hoping for.

Thirdly...

Ned Yost Fired: Monday, the Milwaukee Brewers made the unprecedented move of firing their manager while they're tied for a playoff spot in September. Like most folks, I'm not terribly upset by the move because I had no great love for Yost's managerial skills. I am however puzzled by the timing of the move. If you were going to make this move, shouldn't it have been a month ago when interim manager Dale Svuem would have had some time to settle into the job? Now he's down to 11 games or so left and he's got to get this thing turned around in time to save the season. Not good.

Brewer's GM Doug Melvin is taking the company line and saying this was a decision he and owner Mark Attanasio made together. Horse-hockey I say. Melvin's been a good baseball guy for far too long. There's no way he doesn't see this as the "too little, too late" move that it is. This is a panic move by an owner who's seeing his club choke away a playoff berth for the second year in a row and wants to be seen as trying to save it.

Kudos to Ned Yost who's taken the high road (copyright Dennis Green) in his post-dismissal comments. While he acknowledges his disagreement with the decision to let him go, he's been nothing but complimentary of the players, organization and fans in Milwaukee. It may be a calculated move on his part, but it's a smart move and will likely land him another managerial opportunity sooner than later.

I hate to say it Brewer fans. But there is such a thing as "baseball karma" and a move like this isn't likely to bring you the good kind. You're now a 1/2-game behind the Mets for the Wild Card. Not good... not good.

Finally today it's time for this week's Peek at the Picks segment where I compare my pre-season picks to the current MLB standings. Do I really have to do this to myself? I've done it all year, so it's time to stand up and taking my whipping like a man! (Mommy... help!)

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies, 84-67 (Dan's Pick: NY Mets, 1/2 Game Back)
Yeesh... The Mets have tanked as of late, while the Phils are on a roll. Philly's won 7 of their last 10 including their last 5 in a row. That's the run you go on when you want to take control of your playoff destiny. Some teams are doing that. Others aren't. (No, that's not a shot at you Milwaukee... Minnesota? You should be listening.) The East is far from decided however. Philly's Magic Number: 12.

NL Central: Chicago Cubs, 91-58 (DP: Cubs)
This one's almost in the bag. The Brewers have gone into "Titanic" mode. The Astros are too busy whining about where they're playing to actually get a hit. And everybody else in the division's been cooked since mid-August. The Cubs ought to clinch by early next week at the very latest. Chicago's Magic Number: 4.

NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers, 79-72 (DP: Arizona Diamondbacks, 4.5 GB)
I'll give the Snakes credit. They've won 2 in a row and are trying to pull out of the swoon that has put their playoff chances on life-support. 12 games is an awfully short time to make up a 4.5 game deficit though. But if you have to be chasing a team from that far back, the Dodgers are the best one to have to chase. Considering the start the D'backs had though, and the moves they've made to try and shore up their weaknesses, manager Bob Melvin had better hope they do make up that deficit. Or he may need to dust off that resume. L.A.'s Magic Number: 8.

NL Wildcard: New York Mets, 83-67 (DP: Dodgers, 4.5 GB)
Does it count if the Mets make the playoffs even if they don't win their division? Probably not. And it wouldn't much matter. 2 of 8 isn't much more impressive than 1 of 8. Oof. The Brewers are only a 1/2-game behind the Mets, so they're not out of it. But it isn't looking good in Milwaukee. Not good at all. Mets' Magic Number: 12.

AL East: Tampa Bay Rays, 89-60 (DP: Boston, whom I hate, 1 GB)
To all those folks who said that Boston was about to overtake the Rays and that it was really okay because the Rays would still have a huge lead in the Wild Card race? Shut up! Don't think for a second that it's not important for the Rays to win the division. Not only does it prove that they can beat (not just contend with, but beat) the big boys in the East. But it also means that they'll host the AL Central winner. That's a vast improvement over travelling to meet the Angels. So don't expect Tampa to let up off the gas for one second until they've sealed the deal in the East. Tampa's Magic Number: 12.

AL Central: Chicago White Sox, 84-66 (DP: Detroit Tigers, 14 GB)
The Twins have slipped to 2.5 games behind the White Sox and are perilously close to falling out of contention. No, 2.5 games isn't insurmountable, but if the White Sox play .500 ball in their last 12 games, the Twins would have to go 9-2 in their last 11 to pass them. You see where the math starts to get tricky this late in the season. There's still a 3-game series between the two clubs next week. But if Chicago maintains this lead, that forces the Twins to sweep. And that's not a likely scenario. Suddenly, I'm depressed. Chicago's Magic Number: 10.

AL West: Los Angeles Angels, 92-58 (DP: Seattle Mariners, 35 GB)
Still the best team in baseball, the Angels have long-since clinched their playoff spot. Francisco Rodriguez has broke the season-saves record. And now it's just a matter of staying healthy and figuring out who's coming to L.A. for October. The important thing, of course, is whether anyone wins the "How many games back will Seattle finish" contest. There are a couple of contenders left. Only a couple weeks left til we find out!!!

AL Wildcard: Boston Red Sox, whom I hate, 89-62 (DP: Cleveland Indians, 15 GB)
Damn you Cleveland! You have no shot at anything this year, but instead of rolling over and letting the Twins catch the White Sox, you beat the bejabbers out of them. You're not the Red Sox (whom I hate) but you're not far off at this point! Curse you all! Okay. Deep breath. I'll be okay. Boston, whom I hate, has a Magic Number of 5.

So 1 of 8, huh? Wow. This baseball prediction stuff is harder than I thought. Thank God, I'm above .500 in my college football picks, huh?!

Shut up, I have to cling to something!

That's all for today folks. Like I said, I'll be back tomorrow with my college picks, and hopefully earlier than usual. Until then, thanks so much for reading!

15 September, 2008

Announcement, Week 3 Post-Mortem & ST Mailbag


Hello again everybody...

It's the start of another work-week and I hope you had a good weekend. Mine was excellent, as you're about to read (*cough* 3-1 *cough*). Plus I've got a short week this week as I have some vacation time coming, so you'll get no complaints from me!

Before we get to the main body of the column today, I have an announcement to make. Now that we're starting to get into the meat of the college football season, it's time for the debut of the Sports Take Top 10 College Football Poll. That's right, we're going to have our very own poll, the AP and ESPN/USA Today be damned! I've spoken to some of you privately to gauge your interest, but there may be some of you that I haven't reached yet that would be interested in becoming a voter. It's terribly simple. All you have to do is let me know you're interested and I'll email you a ballot on Monday, which you'll need to return to me by Wednesday. The poll results will be released with the picks on Thursdays.

So if you want to be a voter, send me an email by Monday at: dcook93@yahoo.com.

For the rest of today's column, I'll be conducting the Week 3 Picks Post-Mortem, and then be answering another of your questions in the Sports Take Mailbag. So let's get to it!

"In my many years I have come to a conclusion that one useless man is a shame, two is a law firm, and three or more is a congress."
- John Adams (1735 - 1826), second President of the United States.

Adams was a fascinating curmudgeon. And this sums his attitude up pretty well. Oh and by the way, he was the lawyer that defended the British soldiers charged after the Boston Massacre. And he was also one of the founding members of the Continental Congress. I'm not sayin, I'm just sayin...


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Starting us off this week it's time for the Week 3 College Football Picks Post-Mortem!

USC -10.5 vs. Ohio State: Final Score - USC 35, OSU 3

This one went nearly exactly how I figured. Star Buckeye RB Beanie Wells didn't play (which you'll recall I predicted). And the Ohio State offense was extremely ineffective as a result. Todd Boeckman is a serviceable quarterback, but when you're relying on him to win you a football game, you've got problems. And freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor certainly has the potential to become a dynamic play-maker, but he wasn't going to be able to get it done against USC's defense in only his third game.

Meanwhile, USC QB Mark Sanchez was efficient and accurate. After a bit of a spotty start, he and the USC offense got into a rhythm and moved the ball nearly at will against OSU's defense. And what kind of superlatives can accurately describe the play of the USC defense? Granted, I just called the OSU offense quite ordinary. But to only give up 3 points to a team that played in the National Championship last year? That's impressive.

What Dan Learned: Not much honestly. This one went pretty much to form. OSU's highly over-rated without Wells and USC's one of the best teams in the country.

1-0 and looking good.

Next...

East Carolina -13 @ Tulane: Final Score - ECU 28, Tulane 24.

Woops. Sports Take reader Lon in Forest Lake said it best: "13 points is too much to cover". Especially when you're an emerging team on the road.

(Unrelated Aside: Word has just made it to the Sports Take offices that the Milwaukee Brewers have fired manager Ned Yost. Apparently losing 7 of 10 in a late-season Wild Card race will do that. Ouch. More on this Wednesday.)

I didn't see the game, so I can't talk too much about the specifics, only that the Pirates had to make a late-game comeback to earn the win. So ECU goes to 3-0 and retains their status as a potential BCS Buster.

What Dan Learned: No matter how anemic Tulane's offense looked against Alabama, I can't give up 13 points when taking a team like ECU that relies as much on heart and good coaching as it does on talent. At least when they're on the road that is!

1-1. .500, thy name is Sports Take. Oof.

Thirdly...

Notre Dame +2 vs. Michigan: Final Score - ND 35, Michigan 17.

This was a lot uglier than the score would indicate. I only saw bits and pieces of the game, but there was something like 6 turnovers by the Wolverines 4 of which turned into Notre Dame touchdowns. Ouch.

For those Michigan fans out there, I'd love to point out that it was raining most of the afternoon in South Bend, and that had a lot to do with the ball-protection issues, but it rained on the Irish sideline too, and they managed not to put the ball on the ground as much as Michigan. Sorry Hammer, I tried.

What Dan Learned: This was my "home field matters" pick of the week. And it held up. Because honestly, if this game was in Michigan, I'm not sure the score wouldn't have been exactly reversed. There's no way anyone can really argue that the Irish are 18 points better than the Wolverines at this point. Michigan had a bad day to be sure. But it's a lot easier to have a bad day on the road than it is at home.

2-1... please Georgia Tech... I'll root for you the rest of the year if you get me to 3-1!!!

Finally, it's the Sports Take Flyer Pick of the Week:

Georgia Tech +6.5 @ Virginia Tech: Final Score - Va Tech 20, Georgia Tech 17.

Yes! We did it! The Yellowjackets had this game tied late at 17 and as I told Sports Take reader Josh in Shoreview, "We're rooting for field goals!!!" And it worked out. The 6.5 we were getting was enough to get us the win.

Again, I didn't get to see any of this game, so I can't give you much in the way of details. I'm just gonna be happy with the win.

What Dan Learned: Sometimes you can bet on a road dog. You just have to be sure that the team they're playing is struggling and the team you're betting on has it in them to surprise people. It worked this week anyway!

So that's 3-1 this week and 7-5 on the year. Those of you who were with me last year know how astounding this is. Those that weren't? Just take my word for it. This is an amazing turn-around from a tough season last year. I only hope I can keep it rolling. Please God? Please let me keep it rolling?

Finally today, it's this week's version of The Sports Take Mailbag. This week's question comes from Mary in Plymouth:

"What the heck is with the Gophers? Is this a sign of the apocalypse?"

What Mary (a proud Badger fan) is referencing is that the U of M Golden Gopher football team has experienced a Sports Take-like turn-around from their 1-11 season last year and are 3-0 as they go into their last non-conference tilt of the year this week against Florida Atlantic.

No Mary, we aren't experiencing the End of Days just because the Gophers are beating teams they ought to beat.

But it is a marked improvement from what was a dismal year last year. So what's the difference? A couple of things I think.

First of all, I think head coach Tim Brewster has a much more realistic idea of what he faces running a program like Minnesota than he did last year. Part of what got Brewster the job in the first place is the sheer force of his personality. There's no question that Brewster can sell it. The question is whether he can coach it or not. And I don't think we've had that sufficiently answered. At least not yet.

But there's been a distinct downgrade in the hype that was coming from the head coaches office this season. While it's true that there's still a piece of "Rose Bowl Turf" growing in the Gopher locker room, you don't hear hear the cries of, "Why not this year" that were being tossed around last year.

And before you can turn a corner with a program, you have to have a realistic idea of what you've got and who you are. It seems to me Coach Brewster has a much better grasp on that this year.

The other reason is that they've upgraded some talent. It's been highly publicized that big time recruits like Sam Maresh and Marquise Gray aren't available to the Gophers this year for various reasons. But Brewster brought in a bevy of junior college transfers to try and upgrade the speed and talent on his team. And it seems to be working.

To a point.

Remember, the Gophers have beaten Northern Illinois, Bowling Green and Montana State. Granted Bowling Green beat a 25th-ranked Pittsburgh in Week 1. And beating them on the road was impressive given where the Gopher program has been. Eventually, that's a win you should expect to get, but nobody who watched that 1-11 squad last year could realistically have automatically chalked this game up as a win. But NIU is not a good program and Montana State is an FCS team (the division formerly known as I-AA).

So 3-0 is 3-0, sure. But if they get to 3-0 in the Big Ten, given that Ohio State and Illinois are 2 of their first 3 conference games, then we can start worrying about brushing up on the Book of Revelations!

Thanks for the question Mary. Remember, if you want your question to make it into the Mailbag, drop me an email at: dcook93@yahoo.com.

That's all for today folks. I'll be back on Wednesday with more baseball talk. Until then, thanks for reading!

12 September, 2008

College or Pro? & DFTU


Hello again everybody...

We've arrived at the end of another week, and for me anyway, it couldn't come soon enough. Not only because a weekend of rest should be just enough to kick the rest of this virus out of my system, but because there's a solid slate of college football games on Saturday!

Which leads me into my first topic today. I've been developing this theory for a while and I think I'm finally at a spot where I can clearly communicate it. Simply put, I'm finding myself more and more a fan of college sports over professional, and today I'll tell you why. Then it's this week's version of the DFTU. And just in case you were getting bored with the DFTU, there's an addition this week... check it out!

"Boys will be boys, and so will a lot of middle-aged men."
- Kin Hubbard (1868 - 1930), American cartoonist, humorist, and journalist

As someone who often proclaims himself, "very immature for my age", this one's in my wheelhouse!


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So here's my latest theory: I like college sports more than pro sports.

For years now, I've felt that way specifically in terms of basketball. I have less than no interest in the NBA. Yes, the players are tremendous (copyright Tim Brewster) athletes. And yes, what they do on the court defies what you'd think was physically possible.

But I want to watch "basketball". I want to see the Princeton offense take a less-talented team and make them competitive with one of the big boys. I want to see a zone defense challenge a team to beat you with outside shooting. I want to see a motion offense executed with precision to create 3 straight lay-ups. I want to see a high-low post game befuddle a smaller defense. I want to see a coach actually have an impact on the game he's participating in.
You don't get that in the NBA. Coaches in the NBA are no more than glorified babysitters. And what happens off the court seems to take on as much, if not more importance than what takes place on the court. And the schemes and plays that are run, are outpaced by the athleticism of the players executing them.

And now I'm getting the same feeling about football. I want to preface this part of my discussion by saying that this is the first year in ages where I'm not participating in Fantasy Football. It's not that I have anything against Fantasy games, or the people who play them. Frankly, I just needed a break. But without Fantasy Football to draw me on Sunday, it's given me a chance to really assess my feelings about the pro game versus the college game.

And what I'm realizing is that some of the same precepts that draw me to college basketball over the NBA, also apply to football.

Each year I get more and more excited for the start of the college football season and less and less interested in the start of the NFL season.

Again, there's no question that NFL players are extraordinary athletes. And obviously the talent-level in the pro game is light-years ahead of the college game. But I think that's my problem. Professional athletes these days have gotten so strong and so fast that their athleticism has out-paced the intellectual aspect of the game.

Teams in the NFL don't "out-scheme" each other any more. The best coaches in the NFL aren't in that class because they know significantly more about football than other coaches, they're considered the best because they're better able to manage egos and posses.

There's a reason that the "spread offense" is taking over college football, but hasn't made a dent in the pros. There's a reason that the "triple option" works for Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech, but would never be attempted by Marvin Lewis with the Bengals.

Schemes matter in college football. Coaches matter. The chess-game is in full effect. And I guess that's what I really dig. I've never been terribly athletic (shocking to most of you I know), but I've always enjoyed out-thinking opponents in sports. Or at the very least try to figure out what coaches are thinking as they try to out-think their opponents.

So I hope it doesn't come to the point where I stop watching pro football the same way I've stopped watching pro basketball. But I think from at least an enjoyment standpoint, the pendulum has pretty much swung to the college game.

But that's just me. If you disagree, attach a comment and tell us why!

Finally for this week it's time for everybody's favorite segment: Dan's Favorite Teams Update! And today, there's an addition to the group! Let's begin...

Minnesota Twins: The Twins are 80-66, in second place in the AL Central and 1 game behind the Chicago White Sox.

3-3 on their home-stand? Not what Twins fans were hoping for considering they were playing Detroit and Kansas City. And yet, it's hard to be real worked up about it. The Twins entered the home-stand trailing the Sox by 1.5 games, and finish it trailing by 1 game. How can you be upset by that?

I guess if you're a "glass half empty" kind of person you could point out that had the Twins won each of their home series, they'd be tied with the White Sox. And dare we dream of a 5-1 home-stand, that would've given them the division lead.

But that's past, and now we have to stare down the barrel of a 10-game road trip. 3 in Baltimore, 3 in Cleveland and 4 in Tampa Bay. The Twins have traditionally struggled in Baltimore, nobody wants to play the Indians right now and the Rays are still fighting to remain in control of the NL East.

On paper this looks more daunting than the 14-gamer they just finished. But the beauty of baseball is that it's not played on paper. And just when you think you've got an angle on how a series or a trip is going to go, somebody gets hot and blows your whole prediction to shreds.

Translation? I'm not going to make a call on how this road trip is going to go. It's a cliche for a reason, but you take them one game at a time and hope the White Sox keep giving them opportunities to win the division.

The saga starts tonight against the Orioles as Scott Baker takes the bump to face Daniel Cabrera.

Arizona Diamondbacks: The D'backs are 71-74, in second place in the NL West and 3.5 games behind the L.A. Dodgers.

*Sigh*

Where do I even begin? The offense has been bad since June. But for the better part of the season, the starting pitching has been good enough to pick up the slack. But over the last couple of weeks, the starters have fallen off the map. Brandon Webb is suddenly no longer a lock for the NL Cy Young. Dan Haren is getting beat all over the ballpark. And Randy Johnson is having back problems.

Oof.

If I try to find some ray of light in this for Arizona, it's that the Dodgers are as inherently flawed as the D'backs are. They're just as capable of an 8-game losing streak as they are of an 8-game winning streak. So until Arizona's mathematically eliminated, they still have a solid shot.

What's worrisome is that barring an unforeseeable hot-streak, this team doesn't have much of a shot in the playoffs. And considering the minor-league talent they moved out during the season in an effort to take their shot this year, you have to wonder how they'll reload for next season.

Do I sound like I've got my dauber down? Yeah, a little bit you could say. I'm not giving up. If we didn't give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor (copyright Animal House), I'm not giving up now!

Arizona opens up a 7-game home-stand tonight against Cincinnati with Brandon Webb once again trying to earn his 20th win against Aaron Harang for the Reds.

Wisconsin Badgers: Wait, wait, wait, don't close the browser window just yet! (I'm looking at you Gopher fans)

Remember the "D" in DFTU, these are my favorite teams, they don't have to be yours. Besides, you're gonna love it when November 15th comes around and once again the contest for Paul Bunyan's Axe is decided!

The Badgers are coming off an impressive 51-14 win over Marshall at Camp Randall. The Thundering Herd landed the first punch in the game, going out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter.

Marshall staggered Bucky early by selling out completely to stop the run. There were at least 8 guys and sometimes 9 in the box on Wisconsin's first two offensive series in an attempt to bottle up P.J. Hill. And that worked just fine until Wisconsin offensive coordinator Paul Chryst made the adjustment and started calling plays which allowed QB Allen Everidge to throw the ball over the Marshall defense.

The result was 51 unanswered points by Wisconsin to turn an early deficit into a rout.

But now it's Wisconsin's first road trip of the season, and it's into a tough mid-major territory in the form of Fresno State. The Bulldogs are 1-0 with a victory at Rutgers to open their season almost 2 weeks ago. That win looked a lot better before North Carolina went into New Jersey and laid a 44-12 Tony Soprano-like whipping on the Scarlet Knights.

But Fresno still can't be taken lightly. This is a big test for Wisconsin. After being favored by 20+ points in their first two games, Bucky's only a 2-point favorite this week. And a lot of the folks who look for a "sexy upset" each week are picking Fresno to win here.

Still, this is a game that Wisconsin should win. They're bigger, stronger, and I'd argue more athletic than the Bulldogs. And that should translate into a win, even on the road. I make no predictions (those came yesterday), but I'm confident that Wisconsin can win this game. If the defense plays with sound fundamentals (i.e. doesn't get caught out of position and blow coverages), the offense is good enough to win this game convincingly.

Kickoff is 9:30pm central time on ESPN2. I'll be finishing viewing USC/Ohio State, but you can bet my DVR will be humming come 9:30. Just don't call me with the score! Please! I'm begging you!

That's all for this week ladies and gents. I'm back on Monday with the Week 3 Post-Mortem and the return of the Mailbag! Until then, thanks for reading!

11 September, 2008

2008 College Football Picks: Week 3


Hello again everybody...

First off, a note I've been meaning to share since Monday. Unfortunately it's been getting lost in my virus-induced fog. But I'm feeling much closer to normal today, so I want to start with said note:

Congratulations to you!

That's right, over the weekend, The Sports Take officially passed the 1000 hit-mark. That means you, my fine readers, have eyeballed this blog more than 1000 times. I never imagined that so many of you would have an interest in reading my random thoughts and ramblings. So I want to take this chance to say, "thank you". I'm blessed and honored to have so many fine friends and family take interest in a hobby of mine. I can't possibly thank you enough.

With that, I segue to what you all really came here for: more of the finest in football prognostication in the blogosphere! Or at least fine enough to get you to .500!

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So, were recreational gaming legal, and were I to have the wherewithal to make a worthwhile wager, the following are the games I'd be betting on:

USC -10.5 vs. Ohio State: I'm not "in love" with any of the picks this week, but of the 3, I have the most confidence in this one.

USC had last week off after drubbing Virginia in Week 1, 52-7. So you give a coach as good as Pete Carroll 2 weeks to game plan against a quality opponent? I think I like USC's odds against pretty much anybody. Junior QB Mark Sanchez seems to have recovered from his pre-season knee injury and displays the ability to accurately throw the deep ball that the Trojan offense has been lacking the past couple of seasons. I've heard that defensive star MLB Rey Maualuga has some kind of cast on due to a hand injury, but even if he has to wear it during the game, I don't see it keeping him off the field.

Ohio State has been a much bigger question mark so far. Week 1, they destroyed Division I-AA Youngstown State 42-0. But in that game Heisman Trophy favorite RB Beanie Wells suffered a foot injury which to date has yet to be clearly defined. In my experience, when a program is this hush-hush about an injury, it usually indicates that the injury is worse than initially reported. Wells was out for the Buckeyes Week 2 game, a "skin-of-the-teeth" 26-14 win over Ohio University. I won't be convinced that Wells will be available against USC til I see him on the field for an actual play. And even if he does that, I can't imagine he's at 100%. And without the threat of him running the football OSU's offense becomes very ordinary.

And to seal the deal, check out ESPN columnist Pat Forde's column this week where he details Ohio State QB Todd Boeckman's struggles in his last 4 big games.

(Aside: If you enjoy college football as much as I do, Forde's weekly Tuesday column is a must-read. This guy's an entertaining writer who is plugged in to a lot of college programs. Plus he likes horse racing. How can you go wrong?!)

So we're giving the 10.5 while we can (I think the line's only going to go further towards USC). I'll be watching this game in 65 inches of HD goodness Saturday night, so even if I lose, I'm going to enjoy it thoroughly!

Next...

East Carolina -13 @ Tulane: The Pirates are this year's Sports Take darlings, so we're sticking with them.

Tulane had their first game delayed til later in the year thanks to Hurricane Gustav, so they technically opened their season last week with a 20-6 loss in Alabama. Green Wave QB Kevin Moore was able to throw for 225 yards against the Tide defense, but got very little help from his running game. And given the way ECU shut down the West Virginia running attack, I don't see that changing this week. That means a lot of throwing and playing catch-up, which is a recipe for turnovers which ECU thrives on.

East Carolina is 2-0 and ranked 14th in the country, their highest ranking since 1999. There is a danger of a let down being that this is ECU's first game against an unranked opponent. But head coach Skip Holtz kept his team from letting down after their emotional Week 1 upset, so I don't see him allowing them to relax this week, especially on the road.

So we're giving an anemic offense 13 points and collectively chanting, "Arrrrgggghhh" as the Pirates go to 3-0!

Thirdly...

Notre Dame +2 vs. Michigan: Time to put our "home field matters corollary" to the test.

Michigan is 1-1 after stumbling to a 25-23 loss to Utah at home in Week 1, then rebounding with a 16-6 victory over Miami of Ohio at home in Week 2. So now Rich Rodriguez takes his show on the road for the first time in his Maize and Blue tenure. There's no question that this will be as Michigan fan, the Hammer, has termed it, "a transition year" for Michigan. They simply don't have the personnel that Rodriguez's offense requires for success. That will change very soon, but not this year.

It's going to be a struggle all year for Michigan, meanwhile Notre Dame needs a signature win.

So how can beating Michigan in a down year be a signature win for Notre Dame? Well when you struggle to beat a team like San Diego State, any win over a nationally recognized program is a big win. And fortunately for the Irish, they get the Wolverines at home. Notre Dame's offense is clearly struggling as well, hence the low number in the spread. But I expect Michigan to struggle just a touch more on the road for the first time.

So we're taking the points and praying that Touchdown Jesus brings one home for us!

Finally, it's time for the Sports Take Flyer Pick of the Week:

Sorry Nebraska fans, I'm giving you a week off. I still think I'm your good luck charm, but I doubt you'll need it this week against New Mexico State.

Instead this week my Flyer Pick is:

Georgia Tech +6.5 @ Virginia Tech: But didn't you just get done saying home field matters?!

Yes I did, but I think this one has sneaky upset written all over it. Georgia Tech is coming off an upset victory at Boston College last week and is 2-0 when you add in their Week 1 victory over Jacksonville State. New head coach Paul Johnson is still working to fully install his "triple option" offense, but so far it's hard to argue with the results. This is a guy who got Navy to beat Notre Dame in South Bend for chrissakes! That's a guy I'll stick with.

Virginia Tech on the other hand is on the brink of a lost season. The opening week loss to East Carolina looks better now that the Pirates have beaten West Virginia as well, but it was still an upset. And while their 24-7 win over Furman was nice, it doesn't tell you a whole lot. That makes this ACC opener against the Yellowjackets of paramount importance. And I'm thinking that's going to make Va-Tech play a little tight. If the home crowd gets grumpy and starts booing the home squad, this could roll our way in a big way.

So let's take the 6.5 and hope Georgia Tech can control the time of possession battle and cover that spread!

So that's it for today. Tune in Monday for the Post-Mortem. And remember, I'm back tomorrow with my standard Friday column. Until then, thanks for reading!

10 September, 2008

In a Fog & Peek at the Picks


Hello again everybody...

I'm going to beg your forgiveness for any cognitive dissonance in today's column. I'm on the comeback trail, but I spent the better part of yesterday on my couch feeling downright miserable thanks to some sort of virus and contemplating the meaning of life....

Translation? *nose-blowing*... "Why am I alive?"... *nose blowing*... rinse, repeat...

Oof.

But as I said, I'm feeling moderately more human today. And by tomorrow I'm sure I'll be almost 100%. Or I'd damned well better be, otherwise I might find myself picking games that don't even exist!

But as it is, my mind's still in something of a fog, so I'll get to the Peek at the Picks and be done for today....

"Humanity has advanced, when it has advanced, not because it has been sober, responsible, and cautious, but because it has been playful, rebellious, and immature."
- Tom Robbins (1936 - ), American author


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So no dawdling - who knows what might leak out of my brain - let's get right to this week's Peek at the Picks segment.

NL East: New York Mets, 81-61 (Dan's Pick: Mets)
Once again Johan Santana took on the role of stopper and prevented the Phillies from tying the Mets for first place. A win yesterday extended New York's lead to 2.5 games. There's every indication that 2 weeks from now, this division will still be undecided. New York's bullpen is still in disarray, and now with Billy Wagner's career possibly being over, it's even more jumbled up. But Philadelphia has had such a problem remaining consistent with their offense that it's not clear that they have it in them to overtake the Mets and take control of the division. Mets Magic Number: 16

NL Central: Chicago Cubs, 86-58 (DP: Cubs)
What the hell Milwaukee?! The Cubs throw open the door and beg you to take the division lead and you're still 4.5 back?! Somebody explain that to me. I'm begging you. Chicago's won exactly twice in their last 10. But Milwaukee's only won 3 of 10. And at this point, Milwaukee's biggest problem may be who's chasing them rather than who they're chasing (see NL Wildcard for more). Chicago's Magic Number: 14

NL West: L.A. Dodgers, 74-71 (DP: D'backs, 2.5 Games Behind)
This is beyond depressing. It's bad enough to have one of your favorite teams in first place with a "barely above .500" record. It's even worse when they go straight in the tank and gack up first place while falling below .500. And when you think of the April and May this team had... good heavens. Arizona's dug quite the hole here. And they don't have any more games with L.A. to offer them an easy out. There's still plenty of games in total, but it isn't going to be easy. L.A.'s Magic Number: 16.

NL Wildcard: Milwaukee Brewers, 82-63 (DP: L.A. Dodgers, 8 GB)
How's that... a division leader is 8 games behind the Wild Card leader... oof. I started to mention it earlier. The Brewers have utterly failed to take advantage of the opportunity that the Cubs have offered. And now it's my contention that folks in Milwaukee ought to be watching that rear view mirror very closely. The Phillies are 3 back, St Louis 3.5, and the team with the best record since the All-Star break - that's right, your Houston Astros are 4 games behind the Brewers. I still like Milwaukee's chances, but they'd better get back on track in a hurry, or there's a strong chance they could get Colorado Rockied, if you take my meaning. Milwaukee's Magic Number: 15.

AL East: Tampa Bay Rays, 86-57 (DP: Boston Red Sox, whom I hate, 1.5 GB)
A funny thing happened on the way to Boston, whom I hate, taking control of the division... Dan Johnson (a Minnesota native) hits a home run off of Jonathan Papelbon (spaz) in the 9th inning to tie the game (Tampa later tallied another run off of Paps (spaz) to win the game). Understand this wasn't just Johnson's first home run of the year. It was only his second freaking at-bat of the season! These are the kinds of stories that make unlikely division champs. There are 4 more games between the two clubs to come, including tonight's series rubber match. So a lot is yet to be decided. But suddenly the mojo resides in the Tampa locker room. And I likes it! Tampa's Magic Number: 18.

AL Central: Chicago White Sox, 80-64 (DP: Detroit Tigers, 10.5 GB)
What a difference a day can make. Combine Chicago getting broomed in a double-header by Toronto (thank you Canada) with the Twins taking the series opener from Kansas City and presto, a 2.5 game lead gets shrunk to 1 game. Chicago lost MVP candidate Carlos Quentin for the season last week and now yesterday, 1B Paul Konerko came up with a knee injury. Translation? The Whities have some bad magambo working against them. So now's the time for the Twins to step up and reel off 5 or 6 straight and take control of the division. If the Twins are in the lead when Chicago comes to town in a couple weeks, I like Minnesota's chances... a lot. We shall see. Chicago's Magic Number: 18.

AL West: L.A. Angels, 87-57 (DP: Seattle Mariners, 30.5)
The Sports Take reader that guessed Seattle would finish 31 games back has to feel pretty damned good right about now. But there's still 3 weeks to go! The Angels are back in control of the best record in baseball. K-Rod's closing in on the Saves record. And Torii Hunter's so close to a World Series ring he can smell it. If the Angels can stay healthy, they have to be the odds-on favorite to win the whole bit. But ah, those 3 weeks.... L.A.'s Magic Number: 2.

AL Wildcard: Boston Red Sox (whom I hate), 85-59 (DP: Cleveland Indians, 14.5 GB)
Cleveland has no shot here, but they have been hot as a pistol lately. And now they're bringing Travis Hafner back from the DL. Not sure why you do that in a season that's been lost for months, and has only 3 weeks left. But if they can create some havoc for the White Sox? Why not! Boston (whom I hate) has a 6-game lead here, so they're all but guaranteed a playoff spot. That's too bad. But they've earned it. I really can't complain. Well, not much anyway. Boston, whom I hate, has a magic number of 13.

2 of 8? Oof. Not good. Can a guy get a re-do? Nah, didn't think so. Did I mention that I wanted to pick the Angels pre-season and Buster Olney talked me out of it? Don't care? Yeah, didn't think so.
Okay, I'm going to go now before my friend, Mr. Day-Quil makes me ramble incoherently any more. I'll be back tomorrow with the Week 3 picks. Until then, thanks for reading!

08 September, 2008

Lousy DFT Weekend and Week 2 Picks Post-Mortem


Hello again everybody...

It was a restful weekend around the Sports Take offices. Unfortunately it was a depressing one as well, as concerns the world of baseball. But there was also plenty of interesting football action to make up for it. So I'm coming into this week fairly well rested and ready to go!

So today I have to give you a mini-DFTU since it was such a horrible weekend for the DFT's. Oof. And then it's the highly anticipated Week 2 Picks Post-Mortem. Was I able to eke my way north of the .500-mark? Stay tuned and find out!

"Some national parks have long waiting lists for camping reservations. When you have to wait a year to sleep next to a tree, something is wrong."
- George Carlin (1937 - 2008), American stand-up comedian, actor and author

That quote has nothing to do with anything. I just thought it was funny!

First off today, it's a mini-DFTU segment:


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Minnesota Twins: After a whale of a series opener against the Tigers, the Twins found a way to drop the next two and lose the series. Winning a series is important at any time of the year, but when you're in the final month of a season, and battling for your playoff life, losing a series against a team you should beat is terribly disappointing.

Let's face it, the bullpen's a mess. I really hoped that adding Eddie Guardado would help settle things down and establish some roles amongst a group of guys who's confidence was clearly shaken. So far? Hasn't really worked. And when Joe Nathan, who's been absolutely lights-out for the Twins since taking over the closer's role, starts to struggle, you know you've got a serious problem.

Now the Twins find themselves 2.5 games behind the White Sox who visit the friendly confines of the Metrodome in a couple of weeks. The Twins will have to close that gap a touch before then, or they'll find themselves in need of a series-sweep. Never a comfortable position.

The upcoming three-game series with the Royals starting tomorrow becomes of paramount importance, because after that, it's back out on the road for 10. Oh my...

Arizona Diamondbacks: What's more painful than losing a series at home against a team you ought to beat? How about getting broomed by your division rival in the last series you have with them during the regular season. Ouch.

Oh, and did I mention that Dan Haren and Brandon Webb started the first two games of that 3-loss extravaganza? It sort of felt like that moment where Rocky hit Clubber Lang with his best right cross and Clubber just rubbed his jaw and growled at him. Not good.

(Aside: It was just announced that Patriots QB Tom Brady did tear his ACL and will miss the entire 2008 season. Team of Destiny? Dead. What was really crazy is that CNBC broke into their live broadcast with coverage of the New England press conference. Picture Bill Belichick in his tattered hoody with a picture-in-picture box below him showing the current Dow-Jones Industrial Average. That's not an image you get out of your head very easily!)

The Snakes are now 1.5 games behind the Dodgers and will have a tougher time making up those games since their done with L.A. for the year. 1.5 games isn't an insurmountable margin by any means. But considering they had a chance a week or two back to have buried the Dodgers all together, any deficit is pretty disappointing.

So now Arizona manager Bob Melvin has to find a way to get his team back up, focused and believing they're still the best team in the division. I have no idea how he's going to do it, but that's his task. And that's why he gets paid a generous salary. Best of luck to you Bob. Oof.

The D'backs begin a 3-game series in San Francisco tonight before returning home for 3-games with Cincinnati on Friday.

So enough of the depressing news, let's get on to the Week 2 Picks Post-Mortem. I had my favorite pick of the year in this batch, so let's see how I did!

East Carolina +8 vs. West Virginia: Final Score - ECU 24, WVU 3.
Readers on my email list last year will remember me saying, "One of the greatest experiences in sports is the home dog winning outright." And that hasn't changed.

I hesitate to say that the Mountaineers were intimidated by the East Carolina crowd, but clearly WVU never got in any kind of rhythm offensively. And that gave the Pirates a lot of confidence. And there isn't anything more dangerous in college football than a team with slightly above-average talent that's brimming with confidence.

What Dan Learned: We here in The Sports Take offices have found a new team to cheer for. Yes, the Badgers are far and away #1 on our list, but ECU's a fun team to watch and an even more fun team to root for! Are they this year's BCS buster? I can't say that yet, but they've got as good a chance as anybody else.

So 1-0 and feeling good... next...

Stanford +14 @ Arizona State: Final Score - ASU 41, Stanford 17.
I was good with the home dog, but the road dog? Not so much.

In my defense, Stanford was still within covering ranged into the 4th quarter. But ASU piled on late and denied me my first 2-0 status of the year.

I didn't get to see the game as the local Fox Sports Net outlet decided that airing "Vikings Weekly" was a better ratings grabber than a Pac 10 tilt. Sadly, they were probably right.

What Dan Learned: I made a big fat hairy deal out of ECU being at home and how that played into them making it a closer game than the spread would indicate. And then I promptly ignored the fact that Stanford was on the road and went with them anyway. Home field matters in college football. We're not going to forget that again!

1-1... still hanging at .500 baby! Thirdly...

Wake Forst -8 vs. Mississippi: A loyal reader of the Sports Take who shall remain nameless predicted that Ole Miss would win this game outright. And they very nearly did. This was a whale of a game to watch. It was back and forth all day with Wake having to hit a 41-yard field goal with 3 seconds remaining in regulation to get the win.

The Rebels are going to give people in the SEC fits this year thanks to their QB Jevan Snead. Snead transferred to Mississippi after being edged out by Colt McCoy for the starting job at Texas, and it was easy to see yesterday why he was so highly recruited. 20-31, with 253 yards and 4 TD's? A very impressive performance by the sophomore.

What Dan Learned: The ACC officially sucks. Wake was second only to Clemson in terms of people predicting them to win the conference in pre-season polling. And if one of the ACC contenders has to scratch and claw to win a game at home against a middle-of-the-pack (and I may be generous with that title) SEC team, that's a bad sign for the ACC. A very bad sign.

So 1-2. Come on Flyer Picks! I need you to get me back to .500!

Nebraska -26.5 vs. San Jose State: Final Score - Nebraska 35, SJSU 12.
Ooooh. So close! I never did hear back about whether there were any "Bo for President" signs hung in Lincoln.

I didn't see any of this game, and have yet to get a game report from an ST reader who attended. Hopefully he'll attach a little something to this column!

What Dan Learned: I'm gonna say that even though they didn't cover, I'm still the Nebraska good luck charm. So will I still pick them this week? You know I'm not going to give that away on a Monday!

So still 1-2 (remember, Flyer picks don't count unless we win! - hey, it's my blog, I can make the rules work however I like!). Did the Gators get me back to .500?

Florida -21.5 vs. Miami: Final Score - Florida 26, Miami 3
There we go! .500 baby! Although I'm torn over this victory. I really wanted to show how talented the Hammer was with this sort of thing, and this sort of puts a dent in his impressive armor. Oh he's still standing, no worries there. But I'd hoped that this pick would lend his NFL picks a little more cache.

Sorry bout that Hammer.

Miami kept things close for most of the game. The score was 9-3 at halftime and after 3 quarters. But the Hurricanes couldn't ever really sustain any offense, and it was very clear that Florida had a distinct edge in team speed. 17 points in the 4th quarter got us the cover.

What Dan Learned: I'm tempted to make the Gators this year's Team of Destiny, but I'll need a touch more evidence before I make that official. This is a seriously talented team though. They play in the toughest league in the country, so it won't be a cakewalk, but if any team east of Los Angeles is going to run the table, Florida might be the best bet.

So another week, another 2-2 record. That makes me 4-4 on the year. This is miles ahead of where I was last year. So needless to say, we're feeling good around The Sports Take offices. But there are nearly 13 more weeks to go. Lots of time to crash back down to earth!

That's all for today. I'll be back on Wednesday with hopefully a sunnier outlook on the DFT's. Until then, thanks for reading!

05 September, 2008

Weekend Series & DFTU (End of the Odyssey Edition)


Hello again everybody...

Whew...

I finally made it through. The Fair is done. The RNC is done. And I'm not in need of a good defense attorney. Advantage? Me. It's time to take a deep breath, so today's Take may be a touch shorter than usual. Knowing the situation, I'm sure you'll forgive me...

Today I'll give you a quick outline of some important series in the world of baseball this weekend. Then we wrap up with week with everybody's favorite segment, the DFTU.

"I don't deserve this award, but I have arthritis and I don't deserve that either."
- Jack Benny (1894 - 1974), American comedian, vaudevillian, and actor for radio, television, and film

The lesson to be learned there? Life sort of balances itself out. At least if you can stay out of your own way long enough to let it happen!


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First up today, let's take a peek at some important series in the wonderful world of baseball this weekend:

Tampa Bay @ Toronto: Tampa's lead in the East has shrunk to 3.5 games over Boston (whom I hate). Meanwhile, Toronto has become the latest "team nobody wants to play". The Jays are coming off a 3-game sweep of the struggling Twins, and Tampa gets to face Roy Halladay in the series-opener tonight. Ouch. Rays rookie phenom Evan Longoria is still probably a couple of weeks from returning from the DL. The rest of the Rays lineup has done a smashing job of picking up the slack, but as the games dwindle, the pressure mounts. And the Rays will need all the help they can get.

Philadelphia @ NY Mets: The final series of the season for the two contenders in the NL East. The final time the Phillies visit Shea Stadium. The final time I'm going to use the word "final" in this paragraph. This series ought to be a dandy. The Mets are on a 4-game winning streak, while the Phillies have muddled through a 5-5 record in their last 10. But considering the massive comeback the Phillies made in this race last year, their current 3-game deficit is in no way insurmountable. Saturday the Phills send Jamie Moyer to the mound to counter Pedro Martinez from the Mets. But Sunday should be the jewel of the series with Philly's Cole Hamels squaring off against New York's Johan Santana (it's the last month of the season and it still feels weird to type: "New York's Johan Santana")

Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox: The White Sox were 1.5 games ahead of the Twins when Minnesota began it's 14-game road trip. And they're still 1.5 games ahead now that it's done. They have to be disappointed in that given that Minnesota went 5-9 on that trip. It feels like the Angels have been scuffling lately, but when you look at the standings, they're only one game behind the Rays in the loss column for the best record in baseball. Chicago's in a dog fight for its playoff life, while the Angels have their division all but wrapped up. But in baseball, what looks like a Chicago advantage on paper rarely works out that way. Saturday's match-up of L.A.'s John Lackey and Chicago's Gavin Floyd seems to be the best of the bunch.

San Diego @ Milwaukee: The Padres are shining up their golf clubs at this point, but this series is critical to the Brewers. The Cubs finally have gone on a 5-game losing streak and what have the Brewers done? Lost 4 in a row. Not exactly what Crew fans had in mind. Especially that series against the Mets at home. Oof. I'm not going to say that they have to sweep the Pads here, but a series-win would be a big boost to their confidence. On Saturday, San Diego sends Jake Peavy to the bump to face off with Milwaukee's Ben Sheets. Now that's a pitching match-up to watch!

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks/Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins: See below.

And on that note, let's transition to everybody's favorite segment, Dan's Favorite Teams Update!

Minnesota Twins: The Twins are 77-63, in second place in the AL Central and 1.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox.

And the Odyssey has finally ended. 14 games later, the Twins are still 1.5 games behind the White Sox. 5-9 was not what I was hoping for on the trip, but since they didn't lose any ground, I'll give them a pass.

That's as long as they take advantage of the next 6 games they have at home. Because after that, it's 10 more on the road. Minnesota desperately needs to get something figured out (especially as concerns their bullpen) on this home-stand, because I can't imagine them having another road trip like that, and staying in the hunt.

As it is, they're now 5.5 games behind the Red Sox (whom I hate) for the Wild Card, so now the focus has to be the AL Central crown. The schedule is slightly in their favor with the White Sox having to host the Angels this weekend, then host the suddenly surging Toronto, and there's still that pesky trip to the Bronx. And of course, of paramount importance, will be that series in Minnesota against the Twins September 23-25.

The Twins host the Tigers this weekend followed by a 3-gamer against the Royals next week. Opportunity? Thy name is Metrodome!

Arizona Diamondbacks: The D'backs are 71-68, in first place in the NL West and 1.5 games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

This is the last series of the year between the two contenders (and I use that term loosely) in the NL West. And so it's the last chance for the D'backs to directly put distance between themselves and the Dodgers.

That being said, I have no clue how this is going to go. Both of these teams have defied predictability over the last few weeks. One day Steven Drew is hitting for the cycle, the next their two Aces are getting bombed. Yes, the unpredictability of baseball is one of its draws. But when it happens like this, it can be maddeningly frustrating.

The upshot for the Snakes is that this is the last series they'll play against a true playoff contender (sorry Jeff, I'm writing off the Cardinals). So a strong finish is a must if they're to have any chance in the post-season. I still like matching up Webb, Haren and Johnson against anybody else's pitching staff in a 5-game series. But I'll like it a lot more if manager Bob Melvin can field a consistently producing line-up.

As stated, Arizona hosts the Dodgers for a critical series this weekend. After that they travel to the Bay Area to take on San Francisco for 3.

That's all for this week folks. Be sure to come back Monday for the Week 2 Picks Post-Mortem, as well as plenty more Sports Take goodness! Until then, thanks for reading!

04 September, 2008

2008 College Football Picks: Week 2


Hello again everybody...

I really hope 4 posts a week isn't overwhelming anybody. I know it's a lot of neuroses and inanity to wade through. But today's post won't be terribly long, since you're now all familiar with the format of my college picks.

And today, I have a special bonus for you. Not one, but two "Flyer Picks of the Week". I'll explain momentarily.


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First I have to give you my standard three picks. Once again, were recreational gaming legal, and were I to have the wherewithal to make a worthwhile wager, the following are the games I'd be betting on:

East Carolina +8 vs. West Virginia: This is my favorite pick of the year so far. ECU is coming off a big 27-22 upset of Virginia Tech, a team that's supposed to contend for the ACC title. And now they're at home where you know their fans will be waiting to go bonkers to celebrate last week's win as well as this week's opportunity.

(Aside: Given the performance of the ACC teams last week, is "ACC Champion" a title anyone really wants to claim? "Congratulations on being the best of a group of mediocre teams. Now you get to go get your brains beat in, in a BCS Bowl Game." Woo!)

West Virginia whipped up on Villanova last week 48-21. Even with the departure of RB Steve Slaten to the NFL, the Mountaineers still have all kinds of offense, so I don't doubt they'll be in the 30-point range in this game.

But the +8 means that ECU only has to score in the low 20's for me to cover. And if Villanova can come up with 21 points against WV's defense, then I have a hard time believing that the Pirates won't be able to at least equal that.

So we're taking the home dog and putting another notch in the win column!

Next...

Stanford +14 @ Arizona St.: When I was discussing this pick in The Sports Take offices last night, one of the news guys told me, "I dunno, I think Arizona State is at least 18 points better than Stanford." And that's what sealed this pick for me.

This is also the guy who bet me a month ago that the Yankees would make the playoffs (all but impossible at this point), and after his initial diagnosis, bet me that Sen. Ted Kennedy wouldn't make it to Thanksgiving (the guy has the best doctors in the country, lead-pipe cinch anyone?). So even though some of you like to joke about my recreational gaming record, his is worse. So I feel pretty good here.

Football-wise, the Sun Devils beat Northern Arizona 30-13 and it wasn't really that close, as ASU called off the dogs in the 4th quarter. The Cardinal are coming off a 36-28 upset of Oregon State and should be brimming with confidence. Jim Harbaugh doesn't strike me as the kind of coach that's going to allow his kids to suffer a let-down, so I think 14 points are way too many to give them.

So we're taking the 14, and cheering for one of the great stories in college football so far this year.

Thirdly...

Wake Forest -8 vs. Mississippi: I was torn between this game and the South Carolina/Vandy tilt that's being played tonight. I don't feel more confident in one than in the other, so the tie-breaker for me was Wake being at home.

The Demon Deacons crushed perennial Big 12 doormat Baylor last week 41-13 last week. A lot of people (yours truly included) pushed the Deacs aside in favor of picking Clemson to win the ACC. Well as bad as the ACC looked last week, Wake was one of the few highlights. And I don't see that changing this week.

Ole Miss had an equally impressive opener last week, lighting up Memphis 41-24.

So if home field advantage is worth 3 points, then the real question is, "is Wake 5 points better than Mississippi"? I think so.

I don't doubt that Houston Nutt will make the Rebels a better club sooner than later, but this is a huge road test for Mississippi, and I'm not sure they're going to keep it close enough to cover.

So we're giving up the 8 points and cheering for the Old Gold and Black in Winston-Salem!

Finally it's time for the official Sports Take Flyer Pick of the Week!

Nebraska -26.5 vs. San Jose State: That's right Husker Fans, I'm back with you this week. I was told that one win does not a good luck charm make. Fine, then I'll pick you again and see if I can deliver a second win.

Think I'll put a whammy on you this week? Not bloody likely. How many of you can name the nickname of the San Jose State football team?

Anyone? Bueller? Anyone?

Give up? The Spartans are 1-0 after a 13-10 victory over that vaunted powerhouse, UC-Davis. Oof.

Nebraska rolls for the second week in a row and the "Bo for President" signs multiply exponentially!

Did I say "finally"? I meant "penultimately". Because this week, you get an Extra Flyer Pick of the Week. Who says you can't get something for nothing these days?!

Florida -21.5 vs. Miami: I'm testing a theory here. I picked against Florida last week and obviously that was a mistake. So I was tempted to pick them this week because I'm starting to get the same feeling I got last year with the Patriots. Namely, it doesn't matter how much they're favored by, just pick them.

So I was discussing this pick with the Hammer (if you didn't see his NFL picks yesterday, go back and check them out), and he contends that Miami always gets up for Florida, so he didn't see Flordia winning by 22 or more.

So I nixed the pick from my regular list, but I'm going to include it as a Flyer Pick. So it's my prognostication versus the Hammer's. Who's right? Who's wrong? Tune in Saturday, 7pm on ESPN to find out!

So that's all for this week's picks ladies and gents. I'll have all the results for you on Monday. I'm feeling good this week, so I fully anticipate being above .500 come next week. Then again, I usually feel that way week-in and week-out, so take that for whatever it's worth.

I'm back tomorrow with my regular Friday column. Until then, thanks for reading!

03 September, 2008

NFL Predictions and Peek at the Picks


Hello again everybody...

We come to Wednesday, and it's all downhill from here in more ways than one. Yes there's the "hump-day-ness" of it all. But for me personally, I'm more focused on getting through tomorrow and leaving the insanity of the RNC behind for good. I'm sure this is a wonderful thing for the Twin Cities and plenty of people are making plenty of money. But it's been a severe pain in the ass at work, and I don't know anybody here that won't be happy when it's over with.

But I digress...

Today I bring you the official Sports Take NFL Predictions. Now this may come as a surprise to some of you given that I've said I probably won't be digging that heavily into the NFL this season. And the truth is, that hasn't changed. I really won't be getting that deep into the NFL as I'll be too busy focusing on baseball and college football.

But never let it be said that I don't try to take care of you, my loyal readers. To whit, I'll be introducing you today to the first ever Sports Take Guest Correspondent: The Hammer. Intrigued? I knew you would be.

After that, it's this week's Peek at the Picks segment. Have my picks gotten any better since last week? We shall see!

"An author is a fool who, not content with boring those he lives with, insists on boring future generations."
- Charles de Montesquieu (1689 - 1755), French social commentator


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So we start with the Sports Take NFL Picks. And to bring you those, I'm happy to introduce you to the first ever Sports Take Guest Correspondent, Craig Schroepfer, better known around the Sports Take offices as "the Hammer".

I've known Hammer for about 4 years or so now (he'll correct me if I'm wrong about that), and quite frankly I know of no better individual to bring you these NFL Picks. First a quick bio. Hammer grew up in Antigo, Wisconsin, the same area of the state that former Seahawks QB Dave Kreig grew up in. This inspired a love of the Seahawks in the Hammer that has parleyed itself into the most dizzying set of sports-team allegiances I've ever seen.

Let's see. In the NFL, he cheers for the Seahawks. In the NHL, he roots for the Red Wings. And in College Football, he pulls for the Michigan Wolverines (though the Wisconsin Badgers are a close second - part of why we manage to get along). So as you can see, the rhyme and reason of it all are a little difficult to discern, though trust me, he's got an explanation for each of them.

The upside of these varied and confusing allegiances is that I've never met anyone with the breadth and depth of sports knowledge that he has. Seriously, this guy's a machine. I once sat in awe as he was quizzed by someone over the nicknames of the USFL franchises. And he only missed one. One! Nobody knows that stuff. Nobody, but the Hammer.

And that's why I feel so comfortable allowing the Hammer to bring you the finest in NFL picks. What follows is his work. Any notes in italics are from me and are only intended to further introduce you to the wonder that is... the Hammer!

It is that time of year again where the NFL Season is about to kickoff so it is time for my annual NFL predictions. Here is what I think will happen in the 2008 NFL Season

*Disclaimer: The Following predictions are for entertainment only and are not to be taken seriously or to be used for gambling purposes* (Unfortunately - although he'd say fortunately - the Hammer doesn't share my enjoyment of recreational gaming. I will say that his picks are far more likely to get you to the pay window than mine are.)

NFC East: 1. Dallas 12-4 2. Washington 12-4 (WC) 3. New York 7-9 4. Philadelphia 7-9

NFC North: 1. Minnesota 9-7 2. Green Bay 8-8 3. Detroit 6-10 4. Chicago 6-10
(The Hammer is a Green Bay fan as well, though not so much so that he despises any of the other NFC North teams. So picking the Vikings to win here is quite legit.)

NFC South: 1. New Orleans 11-5 2. Tampa Bay 6-10 3. Carolina 6-10 4. Atlanta 6-10

NFC West: 1. Seattle 11-5 2. Arizona 9-7 (WC) 3. St. Louis 6-10 4. San Francisco 3-13
(Yes, the Hammer is a Seattle fan, but seriously... who else are you going to pick to win this division?! The Arizona Wild Card pick is bold in my opinion.)

AFC East: 1. New England 12-4 2. New York 10-6 (WC) 3. Buffalo 8-8 4. Miami 5-11
(The Jets are a sexy pick this year, but legitimately so. The Hammer wore a Jets #4 Favre jersey to his fantasy football draft specifically to annoy his paint-thinner swilling, Packer-backer friends. If that doesn't endear you to the guy, I don't know what will.)

AFC North: 1. Pittsburgh 12-4 2. Cleveland 8-8 3. Cincinnati 6-10 4. Baltimore 2-14
(The two teams I follow most in the NFL are the Vikings and the Steelers, so needless to say I was happy to see this pick.)

AFC South: 1. Jacksonville 13-3 2. Indianapolis 12-4 (WC) 3.Houston 9-7 4. Tennessee 6-10

AFC West: 1. San Diego 13-3 2. Denver 7-9 3. Oakland 5-11 4. Kansas City 4-12

Wild Card:
AFC- New England over NY Jets Pittsburgh over Indianapolis
(The Steelers beating Peyton Manning?! Once again, bold. I can dig it!)

NFC- Washington over Minnesota New Oleans over Arizona
(I'd probably have picked Minnesota in that game. I'm always nervous about a first-year head coach in the playoffs. That being said, with my track record, you should probably bet the house on the 'Skins.)

Divisional Playoffs:
AFC- Pittsburgh over San Diego Jacksonville over New England
(No "Team of Destiny" talk about the Patriots this year... really, I promise!)

NFC- Washington over Dallas Seattle over New Orleans
(Hammer really likes Washington I guess. But I'm all for seeing Dallas fall short of the NFC Championship game!)

AFC Championship: Jacksonville over Pittsburgh
(Sad for me to see the Steelers get this far only to fall short, but Jacksonville's a helluva pick.)

NFC Championship: Seattle over Washington
(Some might be tempted to point to bias in this prediction, but...)

Super Bowl XLIII: Jacksonville over Seattle
(... as far as we here are The Sports Take are concerned, this proves his honest effort.)

So there you have them, the Hammer's predictions for the 2008 NFL season. I'll give you a moment to discuss amongst yourselves.

Okay, moment's over. Now if you enjoyed those, prepare yourself. For the Hammer is one of the biggest hockey fans I know. And as such I've commissioned him to provide a NHL preview as well. Stay tuned for that in a few weeks!

Next up today is this week's Peek at the Picks segment, where I compare my pre-season baseball picks to the current MLB picks. And you, my dear readers, are given the opportunity to mock me mercilessly. It's okay. Really. I can take it. *Sniff*

NL East: N.Y. Mets, 78-61 (Dan's Pick: Mets)
Things haven't changed much in the NL East. It's still pretty much down to the Mets and the Phillies. The Marlins are now 8 games back and really not a threat to win it, though they could be a factor down the stretch as they have a combined 9 games left with the Mets and Phillies. NY and Philadelphia square off in their final series of the season against each other starting Friday. Met's Magic Number: 22.

NL Central: Chicago Cubs, 85-54 (DP: Cubs)
The Cubs are looking vulnerable for the first time all year. Carlos Zambrano left last night's game in the 5th inning with arm trouble. And that certainly doesn't bode well for the Cubbies. Milwaukee is hanging right with them, 4.5 games back. And if there ever was going to be an opportunity to catch Chicago, the next couple of weeks might be it! Cubs Magic Number: 20.

NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks, 70-68 (DP: D'backs)
2 games over .500?! Brandon Webb has his worst outing as a major leaguer this past Sunday against the Dodgers?! I almost want to petition the MLB offices to add a 2nd Wild Card and just write the Western division off for the year. Seriously. This is just ugly. That being said, it's not going to happen. Somebody from the West is going to the playoffs. With only a 1.5-game lead, it's hard to say for sure that it'll be the D'backs. But the Dodgers aren't exactly putting much fear into anybody these days. Oof. Arziona's Magic Number: 23.

NL Wild Card: Milwaukee Brewers, 80-58 (DP: L.A. Dodgers, 11.5 Games Back)
Life's got to be pretty good in Milwaukee these days. They've got a 4.5-game lead on the Phillies for the Wild Card, and the Cubs are giving them a chance at the division title. It seems it's going to take a monumental choke-job to miss the playoffs. But, they still have Eric Gagne pitching out of their bullpen for some reason. And that, if nothing else, could prove to be costly. Milwaukee's Magic Number: 20.

AL East: Tampa Bay Rays, 84-52 (DP: Boston, whom I hate, 4 GB)
The Rays are holding steady with the best record in the league. And with less than a month to go, they're a serious favorite to not only win the division, but to host the first two rounds of the playoffs. Amazing considering where they were last year. Oh, and yes, I still hate the Red Sox. Tampa's Magic Number: 22.

AL Central: Chicago White Sox/Minnesota Twins, 77-61 (DP: Detroit, 11 GB)
So far the Twins are 5-7 on their epic road-trip, and yet somehow, they've managed to grab a share of the lead in the Central. What's been most worrisome has been the performance of the bullpen, but they bullpen hasn't looked good on the road all year. I said I'd take 7-7, and the Twins are still very much in range to achieve that. Meanwhile the Sox are facing a stretch of games with the Angels, Blue Jays and Tigers. I have no idea how the Twins are doing this, but I'm sure as hell loving it! Sox/Twins Magic Number: 16.

AL West: Los Angeles Angels, 84-53 (DP: Seattle Mariners, 30.5 GB)
L.A.'s won 7 out of their last 10, and just like that they're back in the mix for best record in the bigs. I may not know what's going to happen with the rest of the playoffs, but personally I'm rooting for an L.A./Minnesota ALCS. Torii Hunter against the Twins for a trip to the World Series? Yup, I can dig me some of that! L.A.'s Magic Number: 7.

AL Wildcard: Botson Red Sox (whom I hate), 81-57 (DP: Cleveland Indians, 13.5 GB)
Cleveland may not be in the race, but they're on a serious roll. Nobody's going to want to play this team with their playoff life on the line. Cliff Lee is 20-2 for chrissakes! How does that happen on a team that's 67-70?! That's crazy. And yes, all this talk about Cleveland is just a clever way to avoid having to talk about Boston, whom I hate. Their Magic Number is 21.

So I'm still a solid 3 of 8. Okay, maybe "solid" isn't exactly the right term. But sweeping the NL divisions isn't anything to sneeze at, right? Right?!

That's all for today folks. I'll be back tomorrow with my Week 2 college football picks. I know you can't wait. And frankly, neither can I! So I hope you'll come back tomorrow for more! Until then, thanks for reading!

01 September, 2008

Was it a No-Hitter & Week 1 Picks Post-Mortem


Hello again everybody...

Unlike 95% of my fellow Americans, I'm actually at work on Labor Day. I'm not complaining, it's the nature of my job to work some holidays, and the truth is, this is the only one I have to work this year. And I'm feeling better about work now that we're done broadcasting from the State Fair. Of course, that's somewhat irrelevant because now we're broadcasting from the Republican National Convention. But that's only for four days and then we get to take a collective breath.

Oof.

Anyway, I'm going to make good use of my time at work on a holiday by discussing a scoring controversy from yesterdays Milwaukee/Pittsburgh clash. Then I'll run down my college football picks from Week 1. How'd I do? Here's a hint: I'm doing better than last year so far!

Okay, it's only one week, but I have to celebrate while I can!!!

"You probably wouldn't worry about what people think of you if you could know how seldom they do."
- Olin Miller


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First off today, I have to address the controversy from yesterday's game in Pittsburgh. Milwaukee's CC Sabathia continued his torrid pace since joining the Crew by one-hitting the Pirates. But it's that "one hit" that's causing all the ruckus.

In the fifth inning, Sabathia crossed up Pittsburgh's Andy LaRoche on a 2-2 pitch and got him to hit a weak ground ball to the 3rd-base side of the mound. Sabathia hopped off the mound and tried to bare hand the ball, dropped it, and LaRoche reached first safely. So was it a hit, or was it an error?

You can watch the replay and judge for yourself here.

I think we can agree - despite what Brewer manager Ned Yost said - that it was close. For those of you not versed in the rules, the key is, had Sabathia not dropped the ball, would he have been able to throw out LaRoche at first. If you think he would have, then it's an error. If, like the official scorer Bob Webb, you don't think he would have, then it's a hit.

I think it should've been ruled an error. It's close because clearly CC felt the need to rush, or he would've fielded it with his glove instead of trying to bare hand it. But I watched the replay several times and the timing of CC first making contact with the ball makes it seem to me like he would've been able to throw LaRoche out. It would've been by a half-step at best, but I think he would've gotten him.

As I said earlier, Brewer manager Ned Yost doesn't think it was that close:

"That's a joke. That wasn't even close. Whoever the scorekeeper was absolutely denied major league baseball a nice no-hitter right there. They threw hit up on the board even before LaRoche hit the bag. That's a play CC makes easily, throws him out by 10 feet -- to me it's a no-brainer. That's sad. It really is sad."

Bob Webb has been an official scorer for 20 years. I doubt he purposefully blew that call in order to deny CC an no-hitter. So as far as Yost's comments go, it's entirely possible that he'll get fined by MLB, and it seems to me it's warranted. If they protect umpires from post-game tirades like that, I don't see why they shouldn't protect other staff.

So the Brewers have sent a DVD with several views of the replay to MLB's offices trying to get the call overturned. There is precedent for MLB to do just that. Teams often appeal to MLB to change calls that affect various hitting and fielding streaks, and on occasion those appeals are upheld. The Brewers themselves had a call overturned earlier this year.

But this is a special case. Because in this case if the call is overturned, the game turns into a no-hitter for Sabathia. Only it wasn't a legit no-hitter.

One of the reasons that no-hitters are as rare and as valued as they are is because a pitcher has to overcome a tremendous (copyright: Tim Brewster) amount of pressure over the course of 9 innings. By the 6th inning, players are avoiding the starting pitcher like the plague, because none of them wants to be responsible for breaking his focus or disrupting his rhythm. By the 7th inning, word is going out across the wires to hundreds of media agencies and a buzz is building in the ballpark. By the 8th inning, ESPN is picking up the game in progress and people in the ballpark are giving standing ovations for every out. And by the 9th inning, everyone involved is losing their mind.

But CC didn't have to deal with any of that. The play in question occurred in the 5th inning. So while he deserves a ton of credit for not giving up any hits for the next 4 innings, he didn't have any of that pressure or anticipation weighing on his shoulders. And to me that means his feat isn't on the same par as previous no-hitters.

So I'm all for getting the call right. If MLB decides that the play clearly should have been ruled an error, obviously I agree. But in my mind, if they do, the term "no-hitter" won't apply. Or at the very least it'll have a big fat asterisk next to it.

Feel free to argue with me if you like...

Finally today, it's time to look back at my college football picks from Week 1. Let's see how I did!

Minnesota -8.5 vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score - Minnesota 31, NIU 27
As I mentioned last week, I attended this game Saturday night. I wanted to do a running commentary, but my pen let me down and I was unable to take sufficient notes. I do clearly remember turning to my brother in the 3rd quarter when the Gophers were up by 11 points and saying, "I'm feeling pretty good about that -8.5". Woops. The Gophers had to rally late in the 4th quarter to regain a lead they'd held most of the game. A very sloppily played game I must add. Tim Brewster will take the win for his squad I know, but there's still plenty of room for improvement. Especially on defense.

0-1 to start. Not good, but I've got chances to catch up!

Hawaii +34.5 at Florida: Final Score - Florida 56, Hawaii 10
Well at least it wasn't the 68-14 that I saw predicted someplace else. But this clearly didn't go how I'd hoped. The Gators dominated from the get go, and Hawaii couldn't even eke out a pair of touchdowns against Florida's 3rd string. Oh how far the Rainbows have fallen already! Florida was scary-good in this game. I won't say that my prediction that Florida will win the SEC is a lock after one game, but I certainly feel confident!

0-2. This is not good. Come on California, I need some help here!

California -4.5 vs. Michigan St.: Final Score - Cal 38, Michigan St. 31
All right! Off the schneid! I like it. I didn't see any of this game, so I can't comment too much on it. Other than to say I'm sure it was loads more entertaining than the Gopher/Huskie tilt that I attended. I thought that spread was awfully low. Turned out it was closer than I thought. But a win's a win baby!

1-2, with my Flyer Pick of the Week to go. Come on NU!!!

Nebraska -14.5 vs. Western Michigan: Final Score - Nebraska 47, WMU 24.
There we go! A double-win for me as I even my Week 1 record to 2-2 and now I've officially become Nebraska's good luck charm. Even if my Husker fan readers won't cop to it (see the comment below that I'm sure is forthcoming). Again, I had no legit reasoning to justify this pick, but I'll take a win any way I can get it.

So the Sports Take officially pushed this week. What happens in Week 2? Find out on Thursday! Did I mention I love this time of year? Yeah, just a little bit!

That's all for today. Hope you enjoyed your holiday. I'll be back on Wednesday with more of the Sports Take wonder you've grown to expect and enjoy. Until then, thanks for reading!