Hello again everybody...
It's Friday!!!
Okay, I know it's not technically Friday, but since I have a 4-day weekend on-tap, it's my Friday.
As I mentioned on Monday, I still plan on blogging on Friday. Unless something comes up. Which is certainly possible, since I don't like to have set plans for long weekends like this. You just never know. And that's part of the fun.
So I'll apologize in advance if I don't come through on Friday. But for now, the idea is to blog as usual. We'll see!
Last night was the 2009 All-Star game in St. Louis, and the night before brought us the annual Home Run Derby. It was a princely Derby, and the AL continued their All-Star dominance. I'll discuss...
"I have suffered a great deal from writers who have quoted this or that sentence of mine either out of its context or in juxtaposition to some incongruous matter which quite distorted my meaning , or destroyed it altogether."
- Alfred North Whitehead (1861 - 1947), English mathematician who became a philosopher
I think what he's saying is that he doesn't like people that much... or something like that.
So will you remember where you were when Prince Fielder won the 2009 Home Run Derby?
Right. Me neither.
I don't mean to be disparaging towards my friends in Wisconsin, but that wasn't exactly the dramatic outcome that MLB was hoping for. Ideally, they wanted Albert Pujols to win. Even going so far as to count a hit that a fan clearly reached over the wall to catch. I guess in the Derby that's a home run? Whether it was nerves, or just trying too hard, Albert couldn't get it done and bowed out after the second round.
If it couldn't be Albert, then MLB would've scripted it for native St. Louisian (Louisite? Louisi? Artist formerly known as being from St. Louis?), Ryan Howard. Howard grew up in St. Louis and attended Southwest Missouri State before signing professionally with the Phillies. Howard got into the second round fairly comfortably, but like Pujols wasn't able to advance to the Finals.
At that point it was down to Milwaukee's Prince Fielder and Texas' Nelson Cruz. Raise your hand if you knew who Nelson Cruz was prior to this Derby. Anyone? Anyone at all? Didn't think so. I saw the kid in Spring Training, and I still barely remembered him.
My feelings on Prince have been well documented in the blog. Nothing against his Brewer-ness, I'm just not a fan of him personally. But in the end he reigned supreme, so congratulations to him and Brewer fans everywhere.
But it got me to thinking. Last year's champ, Justin Morneau, had a less-than-stellar second half after his victory. And there's been rumblings over the years about guys wearing themselves out in that competition and having lousy second halves. So I decided to do a little research. Here are the first- and second-half splits for the last 10 Home Run Derby champions:
2008 - Justin Morneau
1st Half: .323, 14, 68
2nd half: .267, 9, 61
2007 - Vladimir Guerrero
1st Half: .325, 14, 75
2nd Half: .323, 13, 50
2006 - Ryan Howard
1st Half: .278, 28, 71
2nd Half: .355, 30, 78
2005 - Bobby Abreu
1st Half: .307, 18, 58
2nd Half: .260, 6, 44
2004 - Miguel Tejada
1st Half: .311, 15, 75
2nd Half: .311, 19, 75
2003 - Garrett Anderson
1st Half: .316, 22, 78
2nd Half: .313, 7, 38
2002 - Jason Giambi
1st Half: .318, 22, 71
2nd Half: .309, 19, 51
2001 - Luis Gonzalez
1st Half: .355, 35, 86
2nd Half: .290, 22, 56
2000 - Sammy Sosa
1st Half: .305, 23, 74
2nd Half: .338, 27, 64
1999 - Ken Griffey, Jr.
1st Half: .310, 29, 81
2nd Half: .255, 19, 53
So of these 10 champions, 7 of them had worse second halves than first halves. And of the 3 who either maintained, or improved their performance from the first half to the second half, 2 of them are known PED users (Sosa and Tejada). Of course, one of the guys who regressed in his second half is also a known PED user (Giambi).
And speaking of PED's, does anyone remember that Luis Gonzalez hit 57 home runs in 2001. 57?! I know he's got a rep as a "good guy", but when he hits 31 in 2000, and 57 in 2001 and doesn't hit more than 30 in any other year of his career, one starts to wonder.
Either way, a 70% clip over the last 10 years is statistically significant. If I really wanted to get into the numbers, I'd break down the first-half/second-half splits for all the participants of the Derbies. You could separate them by how deep they got in the Derby. You could separate them by known/suspected/non-PED users. You could have a field day with those numbers. Maybe if I get REALLY ambitious over my 4-day weekend. Maybe.
But as far as the winners go, the numbers clearly aren't in their favor. So if I was a Milwaukee fan, I'd be a touch worried about Prince. Especially since he was swinging out of his ever-loving shoes in the Derby. What are the odds he didn't pull a muscle or two there? I shudder to think.
As far as the All-Star game itself goes, it was the same ol', same ol'. The AL won 4-3, with Red Sox (whom I hate) closer Jonathan Papel-spaz getting the win, Minnesota's Joe Nathan getting a hold, and the Yankee's Mariano Rivera getting the save.
Papel-spaz gets a win, which Rivera saves. That's like an American nuclear (notice, only one "u" in nuclear) scientist sharing a Nobel Peace Prize with Kim Jong-Il. No? How about, that's like Jennifer Aniston sharing a Best Actress Oscar with Angelina Jolie. Better? It's like Terrell Owens sharing a MVP award with any quarterback he's ever played with. There we go. That's the one!
As for the rest of the players from my favorite teams...
Joe Mauer went 1-3 with a RBI double and a run scored. I was worried that all the stress of the Derby would get into Joe's head. I'm still a little worried, but he had a decent enough night last night to mitigate those fears somewhat.
Justin Morneau went 0-2. Not as good a game for Justin as last year's when he scored the game-winning run. But he was solid on defense at least.
Dan Haren pitched a scoreless fourth inning for the NL, giving up just one hit. I said it before, I'd have given Haren the start, but I'm biased like that. Lincecum gave up two runs in his two innings of work to start the game. Would Haren have done any better? Who knows? But I'd have given him the shot.
Justin Upton went 0-2 and was clearly just happy to be there. That has to be an overwhelming experience for a first-time All-Star. So I don't blame him for taking the collar.
Ultimately the game was harmless. At 2:31, it was downright fast-paced compared to recent games. There was only 1 error per side, so it was cleanly played. And in the end, the better team won. Sorry NL, but you're not there yet.
So the American League representative will have home-field advantage in the World Series. Like most purists, I hate that an exhibition game has this kind of meaning, but it's the rules, and they're not changing any time soon.
I can't imagine that there's one single person out there who says, "you know, I wouldn't have watched, but now that it determines home field for the championship series, I'm in!"
How much of the game did you guys watch? Are you only watching for your favorite players? Or are you genuinely interested in the game? I'd be curious to hear. Send me an email or attach a comment below.
That's going to do it for today. I'll be back on Friday (probably) with your usual dosage of DFTU goodness.
Until then, thanks for reading!
15 July, 2009
13 July, 2009
2009 Mid-Season Awards
Hello again everybody...
No complaints about Monday today. I mentioned it last week, but I'm on a 3-day work week this week, so today is really my Wednesday. Yes, I know it gets annoying to hear someone else talk about their vacation time while you're still stuck at work. But I can't help it. I've been looking forward to these four days off for weeks. And they can't come soon enough!
Now, just because I'm taking some days off the job doesn't mean I'm taking time off from the blog! At least, that's the plan anyway. Monday and Wednesday are solid. Friday, I'm listed as “probable”. As always, that's subject to change. But for now, I'm planning on bringing you a Friday column from the home office.
Seeing as we've reached the 2009 All-Star Break, today's column is focused on the unofficial midway point of the season. We passed the 81-game mark over a week ago, so officially the second half is already under way. But since there won't be any games to talk about for a few days, we'll call this the midway point and treat it as such.
The Home Run Derby heads your way tonight. I tried predicting who'd win it last year. Big mistake. All I'll say about it this year is that I hope it doesn't screw up Joe Mauer's swing. Beyond that, I have no clue. Pujols will get the biggest reaction obviously, and if he can keep his adrenaline under control, he's the odds-on favorite.
Instead of those predictions, today I'm going to focus on the mid-season awards. If I was voting today, who'd be the MVP's, Managers of the Year, Cy Young's and Rookies of the Year in each league?
Let's find out!
"Far from idleness being the root of all evil, it is rather the only true good."
- Soren Kierkegaard (1813 - 1855), Danish philosopher and theologian
Moderation, as always, is the key to the usefulness of this quote. Certainly there is such a thing as too much idleness. A line which I push seemingly daily. But I still think this is a clever way of reminding us to pause and enjoy not having to do anything once in a while. Of course, I say that as a single guy with no kids, so I understand others have limitations.
«Read More...»
As I mentioned earlier, we've reached the unofficial mid-point of the 2009 MLB season. With that in mind here are some...
2009 Mid-Season Awards
AL MVP: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
Honorable Mention: Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
This might be the toughest award to pick of the whole slate. Normally, I wouldn't go for guys on 3rd-place teams, but if you look at the division leaders, there's no one player who's stats jump off the page from any of them. In absence of that, the door opens for guys like Mauer and Morneau. And quite frankly, you can flip a coin between them.
Mauer leads the league in batting, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. Morneau leads the league in total bases and appears in the top 5 in home runs, RBI, slugging percentage, and OPS - the only player in the league to appear in the top 5 of all those categories.
Call me a homer if you want. If you can find a candidate with a better cumulative resume than these two guys, I'm happy to hear about it.
NL MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
Honorable Mention: Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
As difficult as it was to pick the AL MVP, it was absurdly simple to pick the NL winner.
Pujols leads the NL in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, runs scored, total bases, home runs, RBI, and walks. Oh, and he's in the top 5 in batting average.
Any questions? Didn't think so. It's a remarkable season for Pujols, and the fact that his club is on top of their division by 2.5 games is simply icing on the cake.
Regular readers know I'm not a huge fan of Milwaukee's Prince Fielder. But it's hard to deny his stats. He's second in the league in on-base percentage, OPS, total bases and RBI. He's third in the league in slugging percentage and walks. And he's top 5 in home runs. If he played in the AL, you could make a solid case for him as their MVP. But he plays in the same league as Albert and that relegates him to a solid second place.
AL Cy Young: Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
Honorable Mention: Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays
The Cy Young winners depend less on their team, outside of win totals, than MVP's do. Being the best pitcher in a league is fairly easy to determine from statistics. How "valuable" a player is, that's a little more subjective.
I fully intended to vote for Halladay in this category until I looked at the stats. Quite simply, I couldn't find any category where Halladay's stats bested Greinke's, except for strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Greinke leads the AL in ERA, complete games, and shutouts. He's second in WHIP, walks per 9 innings, and strikeout-to-walk ratio. And he's third in wins, strikeouts per 9 innings, and strikeouts. And all of that on a team that gives him minimal run support.
Halladay gets the honorable mention for now. I say that because Toronto's dangling him as trade bait. I'm dubious as to whether they'll actually move him. It would seem near to impossible to get fair value for him - just ask the Twins about what they got for Johan Santana. But if he does get moved, it seems most likely that he'd be moved to the National League, which would take him off the Cy Young list for the AL. If that happens, Detroit's Edwin Jackson would step in to challenge Greinke.
NL Cy Young: Dan Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks
Honorable Mention: Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
Another toss up, this time between two deserving pitchers. And whereas MVP candidates are punished if their team is doing poorly, in this case, I give the nod to Haren precisely because his team is doing so poorly. When you compare the numbers, these two guys are relatively even, but I give the award to Haren because he has so much more to overcome.
Haren leads the league in ERA, WHIP, complete games, and strikeout-to-walk ratio. And he's top 5 in strikeouts, shut-outs and innings pitched. While he's technically tied for 6th with 9 wins, that's only 2 behind the league-leader, Colorado's Jason Marquis, and one behind the group tied at 10 which includes Lincecum.
Speaking of Lincecum, he leads the NL in strikeouts, strikeouts per 9 innings, shutouts and is tied for the lead for complete games with Haren. And he's top 5 in ERA, wins, WHIP, innings pitched, strikeout-to-walk ratio and home runs per 9 innings.
Lincecum gets the start in this year's All-Star game. And for that matter so does Halladay, so perhaps I've got my votes flip-flopped. But given what the guys I've voted for have to contend with in terms of support - or specifically the lack thereof - I think their cases are very compelling.
AL Rookie of the Year: Ricky Romero, Toronto Blue Jays
Honorable Mention: Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers
Porcello lept out of the gates as the leader for the RoY award. He's still 8-6 with a 4.14 ERA on a division-leading club. But he's lost two in a row, and hasn't gotten out of the 5th inning since June 12th. That's a bit of a fade.
Conversely, Romero started slowly, making only 5 starts over the months of April and May. But injuries forced him into the starting rotation in June, and he's gone 5-1 with two no-decisions since then. His ERA on the year is 3.00 which is good enough to land him in the top 10 of league-leaders.
Experts are still waiting for Orioles C Matt Wieters and Rays P David Price to step up and show the promise that made them the favorites to win the RoY award during the pre-season. If Porcello's numbers continue going south, they could get in the picture. But so far, Romero's the clear favorite.
National League Rookie of the Year: Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves
Honorable Mention: Colby Rasmus, St. Louis Cardinals
This award might be the one I feel least strongly about.
Hanson is 4-0 with a 2.85 ERA over 7 starts. Rasmus is hitting .278 with 11 home runs and 34 RBI.
Comparing pitchers to batters is a completely subjective thing. When in doubt, I lean towards pitching, because I feel that it's under-valued by common fans.
AL Manager of the Year: Jim Leyland, Detroit Tigers
Honorable Mention: Mike Scioscia, LAAGOCROCUSPE
Manager of the Year is the most subjective of all of these awards. There are two basic routes to get the award. One, you take a team that wasn't expected to do well, and significantly exceed those expectations. Two, you take a team that was expected to do well, and take them to the top of your league and MLB as a whole.
Leyland falls into the former category. Many pundits, yours truly included, predicted another below-average year from the Tigers. Instead, they have a 3.5-game lead at the break. And they've done so without any superstar performances offensively. In terms of pitching, Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson have both been outstanding, but the rest of the rotation has been average, and the bullpen is certainly shaky.
Given those criteria, credit has to go to the manager for pulling together a bunch of fairly average performers, and guiding them to a division lead.
Scioscia makes the list due to the obstacles his club has had to overcome. Everybody has to deal with injuries on some level, but it seems that the Angels have had more than their fair share over the last couple of years, especially in the pitching department. Add in the tragic death of Nick Adenhart at the beginning of this year, and it's truly remarkable that the Angels have a 1.5 game lead a the break. Again, a credit to their steady leadership in the form of Mike Scioscia.
NL Manager of the Year: Bruce Bochy, San Fancisco Giants
Honorable Mention: Tony LaRussa, St. Louis Cardinals & Joe Torre, L.A. Dodgers
Bochy also belongs to the "exceeds expectations" category. I think people thought the Giants would improve over their record last year. But I don't think they saw them as a serious playoff contender. At the break, the Giants trail the Dodgers by 7 games for the Western Division lead, but they lead the Wild Card race by two games.
Granted, Bochy has an amazing pitching staff to work with. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain might be the best one-two punch in the league. And a guy who only recently had come out of the bullpen, Jonathan Sanchez, just threw a no-hitter Friday night! But the Giants are certainly offensively challenged. So Bochy deserves a lot of credit for guiding them into playoff contention.
I gave two "honorable mentions" in this category because I couldn't decide between those two guys. LaRussa has Albert Pujols, and that always helps. But the rest of that line-up is barely major league-worthy. And while Chris Carpenter is a nice Ace to have - when he's healthy - the rest of that pitching staff isn't lighting the world on fire.
Torre on the other hand, falls into the latter category that I mentioned earlier: taking a team with high expectations to the top of the league. The Dodgers were a near universal pick to win the NL West. And clearly we're seeing why. But they've gone beyond playoff contention and now have the best record in either league. And they did so while their chief offensive weapon, Manny Ramirez, took a 50-game break for a PED problem. That they survived that stretch is credit enough to Torre. That they got through it and maintained the best record in baseball puts him squarely in MoY contention.
So there you have them ladies and gents. My 2009 mid-season awards. Have a beef? Think I left somebody out? Add a comment and let us all know!
That does it for today. I'll be back on Wednesday with a wrap on all the All-Star festivities. And if there's time, perhaps even some predictions for the 2nd half? We'll see.
Until then, thanks for reading!
No complaints about Monday today. I mentioned it last week, but I'm on a 3-day work week this week, so today is really my Wednesday. Yes, I know it gets annoying to hear someone else talk about their vacation time while you're still stuck at work. But I can't help it. I've been looking forward to these four days off for weeks. And they can't come soon enough!
Now, just because I'm taking some days off the job doesn't mean I'm taking time off from the blog! At least, that's the plan anyway. Monday and Wednesday are solid. Friday, I'm listed as “probable”. As always, that's subject to change. But for now, I'm planning on bringing you a Friday column from the home office.
Seeing as we've reached the 2009 All-Star Break, today's column is focused on the unofficial midway point of the season. We passed the 81-game mark over a week ago, so officially the second half is already under way. But since there won't be any games to talk about for a few days, we'll call this the midway point and treat it as such.
The Home Run Derby heads your way tonight. I tried predicting who'd win it last year. Big mistake. All I'll say about it this year is that I hope it doesn't screw up Joe Mauer's swing. Beyond that, I have no clue. Pujols will get the biggest reaction obviously, and if he can keep his adrenaline under control, he's the odds-on favorite.
Instead of those predictions, today I'm going to focus on the mid-season awards. If I was voting today, who'd be the MVP's, Managers of the Year, Cy Young's and Rookies of the Year in each league?
Let's find out!
"Far from idleness being the root of all evil, it is rather the only true good."
- Soren Kierkegaard (1813 - 1855), Danish philosopher and theologian
Moderation, as always, is the key to the usefulness of this quote. Certainly there is such a thing as too much idleness. A line which I push seemingly daily. But I still think this is a clever way of reminding us to pause and enjoy not having to do anything once in a while. Of course, I say that as a single guy with no kids, so I understand others have limitations.
«Read More...»
As I mentioned earlier, we've reached the unofficial mid-point of the 2009 MLB season. With that in mind here are some...
2009 Mid-Season Awards
AL MVP: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
Honorable Mention: Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
This might be the toughest award to pick of the whole slate. Normally, I wouldn't go for guys on 3rd-place teams, but if you look at the division leaders, there's no one player who's stats jump off the page from any of them. In absence of that, the door opens for guys like Mauer and Morneau. And quite frankly, you can flip a coin between them.
Mauer leads the league in batting, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. Morneau leads the league in total bases and appears in the top 5 in home runs, RBI, slugging percentage, and OPS - the only player in the league to appear in the top 5 of all those categories.
Call me a homer if you want. If you can find a candidate with a better cumulative resume than these two guys, I'm happy to hear about it.
NL MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
Honorable Mention: Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
As difficult as it was to pick the AL MVP, it was absurdly simple to pick the NL winner.
Pujols leads the NL in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, runs scored, total bases, home runs, RBI, and walks. Oh, and he's in the top 5 in batting average.
Any questions? Didn't think so. It's a remarkable season for Pujols, and the fact that his club is on top of their division by 2.5 games is simply icing on the cake.
Regular readers know I'm not a huge fan of Milwaukee's Prince Fielder. But it's hard to deny his stats. He's second in the league in on-base percentage, OPS, total bases and RBI. He's third in the league in slugging percentage and walks. And he's top 5 in home runs. If he played in the AL, you could make a solid case for him as their MVP. But he plays in the same league as Albert and that relegates him to a solid second place.
AL Cy Young: Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
Honorable Mention: Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays
The Cy Young winners depend less on their team, outside of win totals, than MVP's do. Being the best pitcher in a league is fairly easy to determine from statistics. How "valuable" a player is, that's a little more subjective.
I fully intended to vote for Halladay in this category until I looked at the stats. Quite simply, I couldn't find any category where Halladay's stats bested Greinke's, except for strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Greinke leads the AL in ERA, complete games, and shutouts. He's second in WHIP, walks per 9 innings, and strikeout-to-walk ratio. And he's third in wins, strikeouts per 9 innings, and strikeouts. And all of that on a team that gives him minimal run support.
Halladay gets the honorable mention for now. I say that because Toronto's dangling him as trade bait. I'm dubious as to whether they'll actually move him. It would seem near to impossible to get fair value for him - just ask the Twins about what they got for Johan Santana. But if he does get moved, it seems most likely that he'd be moved to the National League, which would take him off the Cy Young list for the AL. If that happens, Detroit's Edwin Jackson would step in to challenge Greinke.
NL Cy Young: Dan Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks
Honorable Mention: Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
Another toss up, this time between two deserving pitchers. And whereas MVP candidates are punished if their team is doing poorly, in this case, I give the nod to Haren precisely because his team is doing so poorly. When you compare the numbers, these two guys are relatively even, but I give the award to Haren because he has so much more to overcome.
Haren leads the league in ERA, WHIP, complete games, and strikeout-to-walk ratio. And he's top 5 in strikeouts, shut-outs and innings pitched. While he's technically tied for 6th with 9 wins, that's only 2 behind the league-leader, Colorado's Jason Marquis, and one behind the group tied at 10 which includes Lincecum.
Speaking of Lincecum, he leads the NL in strikeouts, strikeouts per 9 innings, shutouts and is tied for the lead for complete games with Haren. And he's top 5 in ERA, wins, WHIP, innings pitched, strikeout-to-walk ratio and home runs per 9 innings.
Lincecum gets the start in this year's All-Star game. And for that matter so does Halladay, so perhaps I've got my votes flip-flopped. But given what the guys I've voted for have to contend with in terms of support - or specifically the lack thereof - I think their cases are very compelling.
AL Rookie of the Year: Ricky Romero, Toronto Blue Jays
Honorable Mention: Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers
Porcello lept out of the gates as the leader for the RoY award. He's still 8-6 with a 4.14 ERA on a division-leading club. But he's lost two in a row, and hasn't gotten out of the 5th inning since June 12th. That's a bit of a fade.
Conversely, Romero started slowly, making only 5 starts over the months of April and May. But injuries forced him into the starting rotation in June, and he's gone 5-1 with two no-decisions since then. His ERA on the year is 3.00 which is good enough to land him in the top 10 of league-leaders.
Experts are still waiting for Orioles C Matt Wieters and Rays P David Price to step up and show the promise that made them the favorites to win the RoY award during the pre-season. If Porcello's numbers continue going south, they could get in the picture. But so far, Romero's the clear favorite.
National League Rookie of the Year: Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves
Honorable Mention: Colby Rasmus, St. Louis Cardinals
This award might be the one I feel least strongly about.
Hanson is 4-0 with a 2.85 ERA over 7 starts. Rasmus is hitting .278 with 11 home runs and 34 RBI.
Comparing pitchers to batters is a completely subjective thing. When in doubt, I lean towards pitching, because I feel that it's under-valued by common fans.
AL Manager of the Year: Jim Leyland, Detroit Tigers
Honorable Mention: Mike Scioscia, LAAGOCROCUSPE
Manager of the Year is the most subjective of all of these awards. There are two basic routes to get the award. One, you take a team that wasn't expected to do well, and significantly exceed those expectations. Two, you take a team that was expected to do well, and take them to the top of your league and MLB as a whole.
Leyland falls into the former category. Many pundits, yours truly included, predicted another below-average year from the Tigers. Instead, they have a 3.5-game lead at the break. And they've done so without any superstar performances offensively. In terms of pitching, Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson have both been outstanding, but the rest of the rotation has been average, and the bullpen is certainly shaky.
Given those criteria, credit has to go to the manager for pulling together a bunch of fairly average performers, and guiding them to a division lead.
Scioscia makes the list due to the obstacles his club has had to overcome. Everybody has to deal with injuries on some level, but it seems that the Angels have had more than their fair share over the last couple of years, especially in the pitching department. Add in the tragic death of Nick Adenhart at the beginning of this year, and it's truly remarkable that the Angels have a 1.5 game lead a the break. Again, a credit to their steady leadership in the form of Mike Scioscia.
NL Manager of the Year: Bruce Bochy, San Fancisco Giants
Honorable Mention: Tony LaRussa, St. Louis Cardinals & Joe Torre, L.A. Dodgers
Bochy also belongs to the "exceeds expectations" category. I think people thought the Giants would improve over their record last year. But I don't think they saw them as a serious playoff contender. At the break, the Giants trail the Dodgers by 7 games for the Western Division lead, but they lead the Wild Card race by two games.
Granted, Bochy has an amazing pitching staff to work with. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain might be the best one-two punch in the league. And a guy who only recently had come out of the bullpen, Jonathan Sanchez, just threw a no-hitter Friday night! But the Giants are certainly offensively challenged. So Bochy deserves a lot of credit for guiding them into playoff contention.
I gave two "honorable mentions" in this category because I couldn't decide between those two guys. LaRussa has Albert Pujols, and that always helps. But the rest of that line-up is barely major league-worthy. And while Chris Carpenter is a nice Ace to have - when he's healthy - the rest of that pitching staff isn't lighting the world on fire.
Torre on the other hand, falls into the latter category that I mentioned earlier: taking a team with high expectations to the top of the league. The Dodgers were a near universal pick to win the NL West. And clearly we're seeing why. But they've gone beyond playoff contention and now have the best record in either league. And they did so while their chief offensive weapon, Manny Ramirez, took a 50-game break for a PED problem. That they survived that stretch is credit enough to Torre. That they got through it and maintained the best record in baseball puts him squarely in MoY contention.
So there you have them ladies and gents. My 2009 mid-season awards. Have a beef? Think I left somebody out? Add a comment and let us all know!
That does it for today. I'll be back on Wednesday with a wrap on all the All-Star festivities. And if there's time, perhaps even some predictions for the 2nd half? We'll see.
Until then, thanks for reading!
10 July, 2009
7-10-09 DFTU
Hello again everybody...
It's the end of another week... sort of. I'm working on Sunday. And between that and helping a friend move tomorrow, it's not a classic weekend for me. But I'm not the least bit upset about that because I've got a 3-day work week next week. So even thought I expect to blink and be right back here on Monday, that won't be such a bad thing.
It's also the last Friday before the All-Star break. Brandon Inge of the Tigers and Shane Victorino of the Philles were the winners of the Final Vote. I'm not surprised that my NL Vote, Mark Reynolds of the Diamondbacks, didn't get in. But I am fairly surprised that my AL Vote, Ian Kinsler of the Rangers, didn't get in. The Final Vote is one of those things that's become difficult to predict, because so much of it depends on the marketing campaigns launched by the clubs with players involved.
In any case, congrats to those two guys. And don't be surprised to see a couple more names get added to the rosters as injuries prevent guys who were initially selected from competing.
But there'll be plenty of time to talk All-Star festivities next week. Today is Friday and that means it's time for your weekly heaping helping of DFTU.
Off we go...
"Freedom of the press is limited to those who own one."
- A. J. Liebling (1904 - 1963), American journalist
When Mr. Liebling died in 1963, he couldn't possibly imagine that 45 years later there would be such a thing as a "blog". Now everybody can own their own "press" and exercise the "freedom" that Leibling referred to. Of course, like all double-edged swords, the best thing about blogs is also the worst thing about blogs.
Since anyone can have them, there aren't any rules or ethics that people are confined by. Quite literally, I could write the most outrageous thing I could think of, without any real consequence. While I strive to back up my opinions with numbers and facts, I wouldn't lose my blog if I started spewing unsubstantiated rumors and tawdry lies. In the end, as with most things, it's up to the consumer to decide what's worth reading and what's not.
«Read More...»
Hopefully you think The Sports Take is worth reading. Especially on Fridays, because that means it's time... once again... for everybody's favorite segment:
Dan's Favorite Teams Update!
Minnesota Twins: The Twins are 43-43, in third place in the AL Central, 4 games behind the first-place Detroit Tigers, and 1.5 games behind the second-place Chicago White Sox.
Damn those Yankees!
I hope you had in mind the "mind job" that I referenced the last time the Yankees and Twins squared off, because it was in full effect over the last three days. I don't know what it is that psyches out the Twins so much when they play the Bombers, but there's no question in my mind that if those two teams somehow meet in the playoffs, the Twins are screwed.
It was almost like New York was toying with the Twins. They beat them with small ball, they beat them with the long ball. They out-pitched them. They out-played them defensively. In short, there wasn't anything the Twins did that the Yankees didn't do better.
It was horribly frustrating.
But as I keep pointing out, there's always another game tomorrow. And fortunately for the Twins it's a meaningful one. There's simply no time to dwell on the butt-kicking they just took, because they're about to play three games against the club immediately in front of them in the standings.
Yes that's right, the Ozzie circus is coming to town. In a Twins/White Sox series, you're pretty much guaranteed a managerial melt-down. The only question is which manager will be first to blow his stack. Gardenhire generally only loses it due to poor umpiring. With Ozzie, it could be anything. A bad call, a good call he doesn't like, a dumb question from a reporter, or a change in A.J. Pierzynski's hair-coloring. It literally could be anything at all.
That's a big part of what makes this rivalry entertaining. Both teams play hard, and their talent-levels are even enough that the games are generally pretty fun to watch. I know I'm looking forward to the series, and I'm sure Twins fans will pack the Dome to try and get the home-nine off the schneid.
As mentioned, the Twins play the Sox this weekend, and then take 4 days off. Three for the traditional All-Star break. And one more because the schedule-makers are goofy. After that, it's time for a AL West road trip, starting in Texas one week from today.
Arizona Diamondbacks: The D'backs are 36-50, in fourth place in the NL West and 18.5 games behind the L.A. Dodgers.
Hey! Look who's not in last place! Okay, they're just a half-game in front of the Padres, but 4th is 4th baby!
I'd be a lot more celebratory about that if it wasn't for last night. Prior to last night, the D'backs were on a 5-game winning streak (longer than any winning streak the Twins have put together this year interestingly enough). Prior to last night, the big "Mo" was in Arizona's corner. Prior to last night, the boys looked locked-in for the first time all year. Things were rolling.
Then came the Florida Freaking Marlins. At first, things were continuing just fine. Arizona jumped out to a 7-0 lead. Then came a Florida 3-spot in the 6th inning. The Fish tacked another run on in the 7th, and suddenly what was a blow-out was now looking like a save situation.
Until the 8th inning that is. In the 8th, the Marlins sent 14 batters to the plate while the Diamondbacks went through 3 relievers in an elusive attempt to get 3 outs. 14 batters, 10 runs, 8 hits and 2 errors later, it was 14-7 Marlins. Both teams played the last inning and a half in a state of shock. 14-7?! That's a Dolphins/Cardinals score for chrissakes!
That's one of those games that has the potential to derail all the momentum, all the good vibes, all the positivity the D'backs had finally managed to create. I say "potentially" only because there's a small part of me that thinks maybe Arizona will come out tonight and get right back on the horse.
The unbiased, objective part of me knows that the likelihood is that the club will be in "here we go again" mode, and Snakes fans will be right back to watching dreadful baseball.
But maybe that won't happen. Maybe the baseball gods will reboot the mojo for Arizona and they'll come out fired up after a stomach-punch loss like that. Maybe the guys will re-focus and come right back with a win against Florida tonight. Wait, what's the pitching match-up? Dan Haren vs. Ricky Nolasco? Yeah, the Snakes have a shot!
As you may have guessed, Arizona closes out the first half with three more against the Florida Freaking Marlins. They also get 4 days off for the break, and conveniently enough, start the 2nd half in St. Louis. I hope Haren and Upton get good hotel rooms in the Gateway City. They're going to be there for a while.
That's going to put a bow on things for today. Have a fantastic weekend and meet me back here on Monday, when I'll be talking Home Run Derby.
Until then, thanks for reading!
It's the end of another week... sort of. I'm working on Sunday. And between that and helping a friend move tomorrow, it's not a classic weekend for me. But I'm not the least bit upset about that because I've got a 3-day work week next week. So even thought I expect to blink and be right back here on Monday, that won't be such a bad thing.
It's also the last Friday before the All-Star break. Brandon Inge of the Tigers and Shane Victorino of the Philles were the winners of the Final Vote. I'm not surprised that my NL Vote, Mark Reynolds of the Diamondbacks, didn't get in. But I am fairly surprised that my AL Vote, Ian Kinsler of the Rangers, didn't get in. The Final Vote is one of those things that's become difficult to predict, because so much of it depends on the marketing campaigns launched by the clubs with players involved.
In any case, congrats to those two guys. And don't be surprised to see a couple more names get added to the rosters as injuries prevent guys who were initially selected from competing.
But there'll be plenty of time to talk All-Star festivities next week. Today is Friday and that means it's time for your weekly heaping helping of DFTU.
Off we go...
"Freedom of the press is limited to those who own one."
- A. J. Liebling (1904 - 1963), American journalist
When Mr. Liebling died in 1963, he couldn't possibly imagine that 45 years later there would be such a thing as a "blog". Now everybody can own their own "press" and exercise the "freedom" that Leibling referred to. Of course, like all double-edged swords, the best thing about blogs is also the worst thing about blogs.
Since anyone can have them, there aren't any rules or ethics that people are confined by. Quite literally, I could write the most outrageous thing I could think of, without any real consequence. While I strive to back up my opinions with numbers and facts, I wouldn't lose my blog if I started spewing unsubstantiated rumors and tawdry lies. In the end, as with most things, it's up to the consumer to decide what's worth reading and what's not.
«Read More...»
Hopefully you think The Sports Take is worth reading. Especially on Fridays, because that means it's time... once again... for everybody's favorite segment:
Dan's Favorite Teams Update!
Minnesota Twins: The Twins are 43-43, in third place in the AL Central, 4 games behind the first-place Detroit Tigers, and 1.5 games behind the second-place Chicago White Sox.
Damn those Yankees!
I hope you had in mind the "mind job" that I referenced the last time the Yankees and Twins squared off, because it was in full effect over the last three days. I don't know what it is that psyches out the Twins so much when they play the Bombers, but there's no question in my mind that if those two teams somehow meet in the playoffs, the Twins are screwed.
It was almost like New York was toying with the Twins. They beat them with small ball, they beat them with the long ball. They out-pitched them. They out-played them defensively. In short, there wasn't anything the Twins did that the Yankees didn't do better.
It was horribly frustrating.
But as I keep pointing out, there's always another game tomorrow. And fortunately for the Twins it's a meaningful one. There's simply no time to dwell on the butt-kicking they just took, because they're about to play three games against the club immediately in front of them in the standings.
Yes that's right, the Ozzie circus is coming to town. In a Twins/White Sox series, you're pretty much guaranteed a managerial melt-down. The only question is which manager will be first to blow his stack. Gardenhire generally only loses it due to poor umpiring. With Ozzie, it could be anything. A bad call, a good call he doesn't like, a dumb question from a reporter, or a change in A.J. Pierzynski's hair-coloring. It literally could be anything at all.
That's a big part of what makes this rivalry entertaining. Both teams play hard, and their talent-levels are even enough that the games are generally pretty fun to watch. I know I'm looking forward to the series, and I'm sure Twins fans will pack the Dome to try and get the home-nine off the schneid.
As mentioned, the Twins play the Sox this weekend, and then take 4 days off. Three for the traditional All-Star break. And one more because the schedule-makers are goofy. After that, it's time for a AL West road trip, starting in Texas one week from today.
Arizona Diamondbacks: The D'backs are 36-50, in fourth place in the NL West and 18.5 games behind the L.A. Dodgers.
Hey! Look who's not in last place! Okay, they're just a half-game in front of the Padres, but 4th is 4th baby!
I'd be a lot more celebratory about that if it wasn't for last night. Prior to last night, the D'backs were on a 5-game winning streak (longer than any winning streak the Twins have put together this year interestingly enough). Prior to last night, the big "Mo" was in Arizona's corner. Prior to last night, the boys looked locked-in for the first time all year. Things were rolling.
Then came the Florida Freaking Marlins. At first, things were continuing just fine. Arizona jumped out to a 7-0 lead. Then came a Florida 3-spot in the 6th inning. The Fish tacked another run on in the 7th, and suddenly what was a blow-out was now looking like a save situation.
Until the 8th inning that is. In the 8th, the Marlins sent 14 batters to the plate while the Diamondbacks went through 3 relievers in an elusive attempt to get 3 outs. 14 batters, 10 runs, 8 hits and 2 errors later, it was 14-7 Marlins. Both teams played the last inning and a half in a state of shock. 14-7?! That's a Dolphins/Cardinals score for chrissakes!
That's one of those games that has the potential to derail all the momentum, all the good vibes, all the positivity the D'backs had finally managed to create. I say "potentially" only because there's a small part of me that thinks maybe Arizona will come out tonight and get right back on the horse.
The unbiased, objective part of me knows that the likelihood is that the club will be in "here we go again" mode, and Snakes fans will be right back to watching dreadful baseball.
But maybe that won't happen. Maybe the baseball gods will reboot the mojo for Arizona and they'll come out fired up after a stomach-punch loss like that. Maybe the guys will re-focus and come right back with a win against Florida tonight. Wait, what's the pitching match-up? Dan Haren vs. Ricky Nolasco? Yeah, the Snakes have a shot!
As you may have guessed, Arizona closes out the first half with three more against the Florida Freaking Marlins. They also get 4 days off for the break, and conveniently enough, start the 2nd half in St. Louis. I hope Haren and Upton get good hotel rooms in the Gateway City. They're going to be there for a while.
That's going to put a bow on things for today. Have a fantastic weekend and meet me back here on Monday, when I'll be talking Home Run Derby.
Until then, thanks for reading!
08 July, 2009
2009 Peek at the Picks, Vol. 3
Hello again everybody...
I'm a little grumpy today. I've wavered over the years between detesting the Yankees and grudgingly respecting their storied history. Today I hate them.
Not only did they drop a 10-2 job on the Twins last night, but they did so by playing small ball. The Bronx Bombers scored 10 runs and nary a one of them coming by way of the home run. Granted, Alex Rodriguez was robbed of a Grand Slam by Carlos Gomez, but as far as the box score is concerned that was merely a sacrifice fly.
Instead of the big flies, the Yankees bled out the Twins via a thousand small cuts. Take a walk here. Move them over on a base hit there. And bring them in with a sac fly. If the team with the highest payroll in baseball is going to start playing fundamentally sound, what chance do my boys have?!
Needless to say, it's not a game I'm going to remember fondly. But the beauty of baseball is that the Twins get to go back out and get after them again tonight. Hopefully Glen Perkins (make that Anthony Swarzak... apparently Perk has a fever) will have better luck than Scott Baker did. A.J. Burnett has pitched well for the Yanks lately. But at least he's right-handed, and that gives the Twins a better shot.
Speaking of shots, I have a shot at besting my Combined Kelley Formula Result from last year! So since it's been three weeks since I've checked in on my picks, it's time to do it today. That's right, it's Peek at the Picks time! Let's get to it!
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject."
- Sir Winston Churchill (1874 - 1965), British Prime Minister
I quote Sir Winston more often than anyone else. But can you blame me? The guy was a font of wit and witticism. That being said, I guess he'd label me a fanatic because I'm not changing my picks, and I'm sure as hell not changing the subject!
«Read More...»
With that, I give you the 2009 Peek at the Picks, Vol. 3!
AL East:
Current Standings: Boston (whom I hate), NY Yankees -1, Tampa Bay -5.5, Toronto -8, Baltimore -13.5
Dan's Picks: Boston, Tampa Bay, NY Yankees, Baltimore, Toronto
Kelley Formula Results: 16 of a possible 20 points
Analysis: Toronto has finally started the swoon that I predicted. To the point where their G.M. J.P Riccardi actually announced that perennial Cy Young candidate, Roy Halladay, is available for the right price. Tampa keeps threatening to get in the race. But the Yankees are flat out better than I thought they'd be. I don't say that just because they've owned the Twins this year. Oh hell, yeah, that's exactly why I'm saying that. Curse you, New York. Curse you! And if I ever label Baltimore as "up and coming" as long as Peter Angelos owns the team again, you're free to slap me.
AL Central:
Current Standings: Detroit, Chicago White Sox -2, Minnesota -2.5, Kansas City -9, Cleveland -12.5
Dan's Picks: Minnesota, Cleveland, Kansas City, Chicago, Detroit
Kelley Formula Results: 9 of a possible 20 points
Analysis: Detroit and Cleveland are killing me here. I'm still not sold on the Tigers as a division winner. Their pitching is okay, but sooner or later, something's going to haywire. It's got to! The White Sox have been hot of late, but since they're the poster children for baseball group therapy, I'm not as concerned about them. I've been waiting for the Twins to make their "run" for weeks now. They teased me a couple of times, but sooner or later they're going to run of 7 or 8 in a row and take hold of this thing. I firmly believe that. I shouldn't feel vindicated about Cleveland. I had no clue they'd be this bad. But I did disagree with those that said they'd win the division. And somehow I've managed to convince myself that I'm right, even though I picked them to finish second. It makes no sense, but there you go.
AL West:
Current Standings: LAAAGOCRCUSPE, Texas (tied), Seattle -3.5, Oakland -11
Dan's Picks: LAAAGOCRCUSPE, Texas, Seattle, Oakland
Kelley Formula Results: 15 of a possible 16 points.
Analysis: If the Angels had beaten the Rangers last night, I'd be sitting on 16 out of 16 here. Oh well. I'm impressed that Texas is hanging on this long. I suppose that the hottest of the Texas heat hasn't set in yet. And for some reason they're still trying to pretend that Vicente Padilla is a worthwhile major league pitcher. So I still fully expect the Angels to win the division. And probably rather comfortably. Oh, and to all those pundits that claimed Oakland would be competitive? I told you so!
NL East:
Current Standings: Philadelphia, Florida -2, Atlanta -4, NY Mets -4.5, Washington -19
Dan's Picks: Philadelphia, NY Mets, Atlanta, Florida, Washington
Kelley Formula Results: 16 of a possible 20 points
Analysis: Remember when I had this division nailed? Not so much anymore. The Mets have slumped and the Florida Freaking Marlins have just enough pitching to scare some people. The division title is the Phillies to take, but they've been fairly inconsistent as well. The only thing that you can count on in the NL East is the Nationals to suck. Anyone have a thought on how their going to screw up the Strasbourg signing? You know it'll happen. Boras is his agent. We've seen this movie before.
NL Central:
Current Standings: St. Louis, Milwaukee -2, Chicago Cubs -3, Cincinnati -3.5, Houston -4.5, Pittsburgh -7.5
Dan's Picks: Chicago, Houston, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh
Kelley Formula Results: 14 of a possible 24 points
Analysis: Suddenly my "Houston in 2nd" pick doesn't look quite as ludicrous as it did mere weeks ago. St. Louis is better than I thought, and I still can't figure out how. Yes, Albert Pujols might be the best baseball player on the planet, but the rest of that line-up doesn't seem like a division champ to me. Milwaukee is sitting on the edge of a knife. Ryan Braun pops off about the team needing a trade the other day and gets called to the Principal's office. We know Doug Melvin is capable of a big move. This is the guy that landed Sabathia last year. Do they have enough to make another move? My contacts in Milwaukee seem to think so. We'll see I guess.
NL West:
Current Standings: LA Dodgers, San Francisco -7, Colorado -9, San Diego -18, Arizona -18.5
Dan's Picks: LA, Arizona, San Francisco, Colorado, San Diego
Kelley Formula Results: 14 of a possible 20 points
Analysis: If one of my favorite teams wasn't sucking the bag so badly, I'd be in good shape here. LA's got this division in hand. And everybody else is only one slot off. But Arizona is horrible. And even though they only trail the Padres by a half-game, I have no reason to be confident that they'll climb out of the cellar. Especially now that they've gone into fire-sale mode and traded Tony Pena to the White Sox. If you're going to give up the ghost, Arizona management, can you at least try to not make teams in the AL Central better? Please? Thank you. Oh, and Manny still sucks.
Total:
Combined Kelley Formula Results: 84 of a possible 120 points (70%)
Vol. 2's CKFR: 82 of a possible 120 points (68.3%)
Last Year's CKFR: 86 of a possible 120 points (71.7%)
Analysis: Well, I'm not where I wanted to be yet, but things are moving in the right direction. If Minnesota can go on that run I keep asking for, that'd make a huge difference.
I've got 4 of the 6 division winners right so far. That's not too shabby.
If I could pick up a few points in those central divisions, I might have a shot at 80%! Okay, that might be a little high to aim. But I'm essentially an optimistic person.
And I almost typed that with a straight face!
That's all for today. I'll be back on Friday with your weekly dose of DFTU.
Until then, thanks for reading!
I'm a little grumpy today. I've wavered over the years between detesting the Yankees and grudgingly respecting their storied history. Today I hate them.
Not only did they drop a 10-2 job on the Twins last night, but they did so by playing small ball. The Bronx Bombers scored 10 runs and nary a one of them coming by way of the home run. Granted, Alex Rodriguez was robbed of a Grand Slam by Carlos Gomez, but as far as the box score is concerned that was merely a sacrifice fly.
Instead of the big flies, the Yankees bled out the Twins via a thousand small cuts. Take a walk here. Move them over on a base hit there. And bring them in with a sac fly. If the team with the highest payroll in baseball is going to start playing fundamentally sound, what chance do my boys have?!
Needless to say, it's not a game I'm going to remember fondly. But the beauty of baseball is that the Twins get to go back out and get after them again tonight. Hopefully Glen Perkins (make that Anthony Swarzak... apparently Perk has a fever) will have better luck than Scott Baker did. A.J. Burnett has pitched well for the Yanks lately. But at least he's right-handed, and that gives the Twins a better shot.
Speaking of shots, I have a shot at besting my Combined Kelley Formula Result from last year! So since it's been three weeks since I've checked in on my picks, it's time to do it today. That's right, it's Peek at the Picks time! Let's get to it!
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject."
- Sir Winston Churchill (1874 - 1965), British Prime Minister
I quote Sir Winston more often than anyone else. But can you blame me? The guy was a font of wit and witticism. That being said, I guess he'd label me a fanatic because I'm not changing my picks, and I'm sure as hell not changing the subject!
«Read More...»
With that, I give you the 2009 Peek at the Picks, Vol. 3!
AL East:
Current Standings: Boston (whom I hate), NY Yankees -1, Tampa Bay -5.5, Toronto -8, Baltimore -13.5
Dan's Picks: Boston, Tampa Bay, NY Yankees, Baltimore, Toronto
Kelley Formula Results: 16 of a possible 20 points
Analysis: Toronto has finally started the swoon that I predicted. To the point where their G.M. J.P Riccardi actually announced that perennial Cy Young candidate, Roy Halladay, is available for the right price. Tampa keeps threatening to get in the race. But the Yankees are flat out better than I thought they'd be. I don't say that just because they've owned the Twins this year. Oh hell, yeah, that's exactly why I'm saying that. Curse you, New York. Curse you! And if I ever label Baltimore as "up and coming" as long as Peter Angelos owns the team again, you're free to slap me.
AL Central:
Current Standings: Detroit, Chicago White Sox -2, Minnesota -2.5, Kansas City -9, Cleveland -12.5
Dan's Picks: Minnesota, Cleveland, Kansas City, Chicago, Detroit
Kelley Formula Results: 9 of a possible 20 points
Analysis: Detroit and Cleveland are killing me here. I'm still not sold on the Tigers as a division winner. Their pitching is okay, but sooner or later, something's going to haywire. It's got to! The White Sox have been hot of late, but since they're the poster children for baseball group therapy, I'm not as concerned about them. I've been waiting for the Twins to make their "run" for weeks now. They teased me a couple of times, but sooner or later they're going to run of 7 or 8 in a row and take hold of this thing. I firmly believe that. I shouldn't feel vindicated about Cleveland. I had no clue they'd be this bad. But I did disagree with those that said they'd win the division. And somehow I've managed to convince myself that I'm right, even though I picked them to finish second. It makes no sense, but there you go.
AL West:
Current Standings: LAAAGOCRCUSPE, Texas (tied), Seattle -3.5, Oakland -11
Dan's Picks: LAAAGOCRCUSPE, Texas, Seattle, Oakland
Kelley Formula Results: 15 of a possible 16 points.
Analysis: If the Angels had beaten the Rangers last night, I'd be sitting on 16 out of 16 here. Oh well. I'm impressed that Texas is hanging on this long. I suppose that the hottest of the Texas heat hasn't set in yet. And for some reason they're still trying to pretend that Vicente Padilla is a worthwhile major league pitcher. So I still fully expect the Angels to win the division. And probably rather comfortably. Oh, and to all those pundits that claimed Oakland would be competitive? I told you so!
NL East:
Current Standings: Philadelphia, Florida -2, Atlanta -4, NY Mets -4.5, Washington -19
Dan's Picks: Philadelphia, NY Mets, Atlanta, Florida, Washington
Kelley Formula Results: 16 of a possible 20 points
Analysis: Remember when I had this division nailed? Not so much anymore. The Mets have slumped and the Florida Freaking Marlins have just enough pitching to scare some people. The division title is the Phillies to take, but they've been fairly inconsistent as well. The only thing that you can count on in the NL East is the Nationals to suck. Anyone have a thought on how their going to screw up the Strasbourg signing? You know it'll happen. Boras is his agent. We've seen this movie before.
NL Central:
Current Standings: St. Louis, Milwaukee -2, Chicago Cubs -3, Cincinnati -3.5, Houston -4.5, Pittsburgh -7.5
Dan's Picks: Chicago, Houston, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh
Kelley Formula Results: 14 of a possible 24 points
Analysis: Suddenly my "Houston in 2nd" pick doesn't look quite as ludicrous as it did mere weeks ago. St. Louis is better than I thought, and I still can't figure out how. Yes, Albert Pujols might be the best baseball player on the planet, but the rest of that line-up doesn't seem like a division champ to me. Milwaukee is sitting on the edge of a knife. Ryan Braun pops off about the team needing a trade the other day and gets called to the Principal's office. We know Doug Melvin is capable of a big move. This is the guy that landed Sabathia last year. Do they have enough to make another move? My contacts in Milwaukee seem to think so. We'll see I guess.
NL West:
Current Standings: LA Dodgers, San Francisco -7, Colorado -9, San Diego -18, Arizona -18.5
Dan's Picks: LA, Arizona, San Francisco, Colorado, San Diego
Kelley Formula Results: 14 of a possible 20 points
Analysis: If one of my favorite teams wasn't sucking the bag so badly, I'd be in good shape here. LA's got this division in hand. And everybody else is only one slot off. But Arizona is horrible. And even though they only trail the Padres by a half-game, I have no reason to be confident that they'll climb out of the cellar. Especially now that they've gone into fire-sale mode and traded Tony Pena to the White Sox. If you're going to give up the ghost, Arizona management, can you at least try to not make teams in the AL Central better? Please? Thank you. Oh, and Manny still sucks.
Total:
Combined Kelley Formula Results: 84 of a possible 120 points (70%)
Vol. 2's CKFR: 82 of a possible 120 points (68.3%)
Last Year's CKFR: 86 of a possible 120 points (71.7%)
Analysis: Well, I'm not where I wanted to be yet, but things are moving in the right direction. If Minnesota can go on that run I keep asking for, that'd make a huge difference.
I've got 4 of the 6 division winners right so far. That's not too shabby.
If I could pick up a few points in those central divisions, I might have a shot at 80%! Okay, that might be a little high to aim. But I'm essentially an optimistic person.
And I almost typed that with a straight face!
That's all for today. I'll be back on Friday with your weekly dose of DFTU.
Until then, thanks for reading!
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